WhatIfSports World Series prediction update: Chicago on track for a six-game victory
With a 5-1 victory in Game 2, the Chicago Cubs evened the World Series at one game apiece. Jake Arrieta (5.2 IP, one earned run) and Kyle Schwarber (2-4, two RBI) led the way for the Cubs, while the Cleveland Indians managed just four hits.
The series heads to Chicago for three games at Wrigley Field, the first time the historic venue has hosted a World Series game since October 10, 1945, when the Cubs lost in Game 7 to the Detroit Tigers.
Before the World Series began, WhatIfSports.com's MLB simulation engine played the Cubs vs. Indians 101 times to see which squad would win baseball's biggest prize. The Cubs were picked as the team to beat, winning 75.2 percent of simulations. When we simulated the series again following the Indians' Game 1 victory, the Cubs remained the favorite, but their odds fell to 60.4 percent. With Game 2 in the books, we're updating our prediction. Check out how each team fared in the latest simulation:
| Cubs vs. Indians Prediction: Updated Prior to Game 3 | ||||
| Matchup | Win % | 5 Game % | 6 Game % | 7 Game % |
| Cubs | 75.2 | 25.7 | 29.7 | 19.8 |
| Indians | 24.8 | 3.0 | 7.9 | 13.9 |
The probability of a Cubs World Series title jumped right back up to 75.2 percent. However, unlike in the original prediction, when the most likely outcome was a five-game win for Chicago, the Cubs are most likely to win in six games, which occurred in 29.7 percent of simulations. A five-game Cubs win remains a high probability though, occurring in more than one quarter of simulations.
If the Indians can force a Game 7 and put Corey Kluber on the mound for a third time in the series, their win probability goes up significantly. In the simulations, Cleveland won more series in seven games than five and six games combined.
Interested in simulating the game yourself? Try MLB SimMatchup. Or, create your own Dream Team of current and historical players to challenge your favorite club.
