2023 Women's World Cup odds: Oddsmaker's take on quarterfinals, futures
Women's World Cup odds have gotten an unexpected makeover over the past couple of days. That’s what happens when the two-time defending champion and pre-tourney favorite bows out, as Team USA did to open the knockout stage.
Even before the USWNT's untimely exit after its loss to Sweden, England assumed the favorite’s role in the odds to win the Women’s World Cup.
Now, the English are favored by slightly more. But a host of teams are in the mix, including pre-tourney dark horse Japan.
WynnBet trader Dominick DeBonis helps break down where things stand in a Women’s World Cup futures market that has no U.S. side in the competition.
Big in Japan
Anybody who gets the above "Big in Japan" reference is welcome to hang with me. But I digress.
One thing for certain: The Japanese team is currently huge in Japan and huge with any bettors who were savvy enough to jump on board before the Cup kicked off. Or better still, when Women’s World Cup odds first went on the board months ago.
Japan has steamrolled through the tourney so far, going 4-0 by a combined goals total of 14-1. Only Norway, in the knockout stage opener, was able to score. But Japan still notched a 3-1 victory Saturday to reach the quarterfinals.
Japan is now the +450 third choice to win the World Cup behind England (+225) and Spain (+400).
"Japan and England were the teams near the top of the board that benefited the most from the U.S. being eliminated," DeBonis said. "England opened as co-favorite with the U.S. And although the U.S. price had been steadily [slipping] throughout, falling behind England and Spain, getting rid of a very good potential final opponent has completely solidified England’s status as the front-runner."
That said, DeBonis is impressed with Japan, which could be had at +3000 when WynnBet first posted World Cup odds. And other books had Japan as far out as +5000.
"Japan was lined up as the USWNT’s next opponent and has steadily [shortened] in price by showing and proving itself every step of the way," DeBonis said. "I’ve personally been high on Japan since [my] initial research due to their diversified attack, performance against other Asian Football Confederation teams in this cycle and being in the group with Spain, which had many of the best players in the pool opt not to play, as a result of a falling out between the players and the [Spanish] federation."
Adapt and Advance
In the final Group C match between Japan and Spain — with both teams 2-0 and already guaranteed of advancing to the knockout stage — Japan rolled to a 4-0 victory.
"We profited on Japan to win the group, and Japan stands as one of our largest outright winners at this point, as a result," DeBonis said. "I personally think Japan is set up very well to find itself in the final and to win the tournament.
"Japan has shown the ability to win in all types of ways, which will serve it well for the upcoming game against Sweden and (if Japan advances) the completely different style they’ll face against the Spain-Netherlands winner."
WynnBet has Japan a +125 favorite vs. Sweden on the three-way moneyline, with the Swedes +240 and Draw +225. Sweden is coming off its penalty-kicks knockout of Team USA in a match that was tied 0-0 all the way through overtime. DeBonis expects the Swedish side will again have its hands full Friday for a 3:30 a.m. ET start on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
"Japan has won 24 of the last 25 games in which it scores first," DeBonis said. "So to have a shot, Sweden will have to deploy the physical, holding approach that enabled it to survive against the U.S."
Alexi Lalas, Carli Lloyd & David Mosse preview the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup quarterfinals
Liability Leader
With the USA out, so, too, is the largest championship liability by far — and that's at WynnBet and pretty much every other American sportsbook. In fact, WynnBet only loses to one other team in the World Cup futures market.
"Colombia is the only loss currently still on the board for us, which is a residual from when Colombia was a popular long-shot dark horse. That’s continued in the run-up," DeBonis said, noting the Colombian side continues to draw money during the tournament.
Still, Colombia is the longest shot of the eight remaining teams by a considerable margin. At +3500, Colombia is well behind No. 7 choice Sweden (+1400). In its quarterfinal match, Colombia is a +675 underdog to England’s -189 favorite price at WynnBet, with Draw +275.
But Colombia stunned Germany 2-1 in Group H play, and tourney favorite England will be shorthanded for this 6:30 a.m. ET Saturday match on FOX.
"With England’s best attacker Lauren James out of the tournament due to the foolish red card that almost got England knocked out by Nigeria, Colombia should, at the very least, have a puncher’s chance of advancing," DeBonis said.
England played Nigeria to a 0-0 tie and was forced into penalty kicks, which the English side won 4-2.
Home Cooking
Also, still in the Women’s World Cup odds mix is co-host Australia. The Aussies survived the group stage without star Sam Kerr, who suffered a calf injury just before the tourney began July 20. But she returned in Australia’s 2-0 victory over Denmark in the round of 16.
DeBonis said WynnBet wouldn’t mind the Aussies running all the way to the championship. Australia is the +700 fifth choice among the eight remaining teams.
"The other big win for us besides Japan is Australia, which is somewhat by design, but probably has more to do with [bettors] not wanting to back the hosts without the best scorer in the world," DeBonis said, alluding to Kerr. "Now that she’s returned to a massive ovation from the home crowd when she came on against Denmark, the Matildas have a very strong shot at being the last team standing and the second host nation to lead the fans to glory."
The first home nation to win the Women’s World Cup? That would be the USWNT in 1999 when Brandi Chastain netted the winning goal in penalty kicks against China, then followed with a memorable celebration.
Unfortunately, as the Women’s World Cup heads to the quarterfinals, the USA won’t have the opportunity for such a celebration this time.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
