2023 Women's World Cup odds: Sophia Smith bettors, sportsbooks cash in on USWNT opener
For fans of Team USA, the result of Game 1 at the Women’s World Cup was likely satisfying enough.
For bettors of the USWNT in the Women’s World Cup odds market? Well, not quite as satisfying.
With the U.S. Women’s National Team projected to blow out far overmatched Vietnam, Friday night’s 3-0 victory wasn’t enough to turn a profit for most bettors.
BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee provides a recap of Team USA’s shutout victory. Let's jump in.
RELATED: USWNT rues missed chances vs. Vietnam
Sophia strikes twice
Those who made a point of wagering on Sophia Smith proposition bets were among the few who had a good outcome Friday night. Smith delivered the Americans’ opening score in the 14th minute.
That cashed two props at BetMGM: Smith to score the first goal of the game (+275) and Smith to score at any point in the game, at -500. Obviously, the first-goal prop had a nice little plus-money payout, with a $10 bet profiting $27.50, for a $37.50 total payout.
Playing Smith’s anytime goal at -500 required a little more cash to make money. A $10 bet profited $2 for a $12 total payout. But hey, if you’re looking at return on investment — particularly if you made a little larger bet, like $100 — that’s 20% ROI — nothing to sneeze at.
"A few bets came in on Smith, but nothing too big to note," Magee said.
Later in the first half, during injury time, Smith scored again to put the USWNT up 2-0. She was +120 to score two or more goals.
USWNT's Sophia Smith scores her first World Cup goal vs. Vietnam
Books net bigger win
But again, with Team USA not winning in blowout fashion and players like Alex Morgan and Megan Rapinoe failing to score, BetMGM and most other U.S. sportsbooks likely did very well.
"It was a pretty decent result overall for us," Magee said. "A balanced line closed at a spread of USA -6 goals. Vietnam covered that, and only three goals in the match was a good result for us, as well."
The Over/Under on total goals scored in the match was 6.5, and BetMGM saw 56% of bets on the Over. So those wagers fell through. And there weren’t too many takers on the Team USA moneyline, which closed a massive -35000 — meaning a $100 bet would win a grand total of just 29 cents.
Morgan was the +210 favorite to score the first goal, and she took the most tickets in that market. She was also -800 to score a goal at any point in the match. Her best opportunity was on a penalty kick late in the first half, but she was stopped by Vietnam goalkeeper Thi Kim Thanh Tran. Morgan coming up short was a big disappointment for bettors, but a big sigh of relief for the books.
Rapinoe not scoring was likely the biggest prop win for most sportsbooks. With an anytime goal price of -400 — not as steep as Morgan’s odds — Rapinoe drew plenty of attention. But the longtime U.S. star, playing in her final Women’s World Cup, couldn’t find the back of the net.
"Rapinoe not scoring was a great result. It broke up some same-game parlays with us, as well," Magee said.
Messi-ing things up
While the USA-Vietnam match was the most bet of the tournament so far, overall action on the match was somewhat light. The high moneyline for the USWNT was definitely a reason, as was Lionel Messi making his debut for Inter Miami on Friday night in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, in a Leagues Cup match against Mexican side Cruz Azul.
Inter Miami won 2-1 when Messi, who came off the bench, converted a free kick in second-half injury time. Bettors were extremely interested in wagering on Messi to score. At BetMGM, a whopping 99% of all tickets and dollars in both the first goal and anytime goal markets were on Messi.
The renowned soccer superstar was +115 in the anytime goal market, and he didn't disappoint, delivering for bettors in the game’s waning moments.
However, Messi mania came at the expense of potentially more betting on Team USA.
"It didn’t help that Messi’s debut was at the exact same time," Magee said, before noting that USA-Vietnam being such a mismatch also slowed bettors’ roll a bit. "With a moneyline number so big and the result seemingly played out before the ball was kicked, that may have turned some bettors away.
"I expect the next few matches to get bigger handle."
That’s partly because oddsmakers expect Team USA’s second match to be far more competitive. The USWNT takes on the Netherlands at 9 p.m. ET Wednesday on FOX and the FOX Sports app. In that match, the U.S. is a much more modest favorite of just -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total) in three-way betting, with the Netherlands a +300 underdog and the draw listed at +260.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!
