Can USMNT's Miles Robinson return in time for World Cup?
By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer
The moment Miles Robinson crumpled to the turf 14 minutes into Atlanta United’s match against the Chicago Fire last weekend, he knew.
Only a small part of the agony and despair written on the U.S. national teamer’s face was a result of the ruptured Achilles tendon he had suffered in his left leg. The real pain came when Robinson, in real time, realized that his dreams of representing his country at the FIFA World Cup in Qatar later this year might be over.
Robinson underwent surgery to repair the tear on Monday. That night, at the end of a social media post thanking fans for their outpouring of support, his mindset seemed to have shifted. He promised he’d be back. "BELIEVE THAT," he wrote.
But can Robinson come back? The World Cup is a little more than six months away. Typically, the sort of injury Robinson sustained takes longer than that to fully heal after surgery. Aaron Long, another U.S. center back, tore his Achilles last May and missed almost exactly nine months. Late Los Angeles Lakers great Kobe Bryant, at age 34, returned from his ruptured Achilles after eight months. Another hoops superstar, Kevin Durant, missed the entire 2019-20 NBA season due to the injury.
Realistically, the odds of Robinson playing in the World Cup don’t seem great. But according to Dr. Matt Provencher, a sports medicine surgeon and FOX Sports’ director of injury analytics and performance, making it back before the tournament isn’t impossible.
"There’s always a chance," Provencher said. "We’ve seen really good players come back [in] about six months, as long as everything goes very well and very scripted and predictable in the rehabilitation.
"In six months," he added, "he’s going to be right on the cusp of being able to get back and play."
As much as the timing might seem terrible for Robinson, it could’ve been worse. When David Beckham tore his Achilles while playing for AC Milan in March 2010, he simply didn’t have enough runway to make it back by June for what would have been his fourth and final World Cup.
"If it was literally four weeks or more down the road, five or six weeks down the road, there’s probably no chance he’d be able to play" at the World Cup, Provencher said of Robinson, adding that getting the surgery done immediately was imperative. "He’s already on a path to recovery."
Provencher has treated athletes from across sports. The Boston area native has worked with baseball’s Red Sox and hockey’s Bruins, and he was the New England Patriots' chief physician when they won the Super Bowl in 2014.
He said basketball players are perhaps most susceptible to Achilles injuries because of the hard court on which they play and the constant jumping required.
Provencher also said soccer players tend to recover from Achilles injuries particularly well. "When you look at all the MLS statistics and all the other professional leagues around the world in soccer, after an Achilles tear, that first year back, they’re pretty good," he said.
"What we do see down the road is the players tend to tail off a little bit, meaning that after an Achilles tear, you may not enjoy as long of a career as you would’ve liked," he continued. "But the good news for the U.S. team and Miles is that the first couple of years are very good."
The 25-year-old Robinson parlayed a stellar Gold Cup last summer — he scored the winning goal against rival Mexico in the final — into a starting job for the USMNT in World Cup qualifying. He was in coach Gregg Berhalter’s lineup for 10 of the 14 matches, missing one game due to suspension.
Robinson logged the second-most minutes played of any U.S. field player in 2021, with 1,199. He also played in 27 MLS matches for Atlanta. Could that have contributed to his getting hurt?
"When you talk about overall load and minutes and wear and tear these players are putting on their bodies, as well as rest and recovery, all of that factors in," Provencher said. "But at the end of the day, to get an Achilles tear, there’s a multitude of factors that come into play. It’s really hard to pin it on one factor."
Some fans have pointed to the artificial surface at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as a possible culprit. The NFL Players Association claims that there is a 69% higher rate of noncontact foot and ankle injuries on artificial turf than on natural grass.
"I can see why turf is sometimes implicated," Provencher said. "[But] when we look at our data, it’s almost 50-50 [between] grass and turf.
"Not all turf is created equal. Not all grass is created equal. There’s a lot of variables … I’m not really sure that the turf made a big difference in this matter."
However the injury happened, Robinson is up against the clock. He’ll have to work hard to maintain his fitness during his rehab, first of all. And not only will he have to return to the field before November, but he’ll also have to prove to Berhalter that he can perform on the biggest, most competitive stage in sports.
It won’t be easy.
"Usually it takes in the seven- to nine-month range to be really ready to compete at that level," Provencher said. "He certainly does have a long road ahead of him. [But] I do think he can get back."
One of the leading soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams at multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports in 2021, he was a staff writer with ESPN and Yahoo Sports. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.
