Stuart Armstrong

Celtic Stats Corner: Even the Numbers Agree, Celtic Dominated Rangers

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Well so much for not being as big of a gap between Celtic and Rangers in the stats. A Moussa Dembele hat-trick, along with goals from Scott Sinclar and Stuart Armstrong, helped propel Celtic to a memorable 5-1 win over Glaswegian neighbors Rangers in the Glasgow Derby.

Rangers had previously dropped points against clubs expected to finish in the bottom half of the table, but had strong expected goals numbers that suggested perhaps they were a bit unfortunate to drop points. Well, it only took one match against Celtic for those numbers to not be as strong!

Saturday’s match finished with an expected goal total of 3.14 to 0.74 in favor of Celtic, with a whopping 2.4 xG difference. Celtic out shot Ranger 20 to 6 and 9 to 2 on target. Heck, Moussa Dembele had a higher xG output than all of Rangers, with his 1.66 xG Saturday.

With those xG and shot numbers, Celtic is expected to win an astonishing 88% of the time, a draw is expected 9% of the time, and Rangers only win a measly 3% of the time. That, my friends, is a paddling.

Previously, there was a right to be worried if Celtic could continue the high conversion rate that they had in their first three SPFL matches. However, if you put up the types of xG and shot numbers Celtic had against Rangers throughout the season, your conversion rate naturally regressing will not be an issue. Celtic’s attacking stats have been great this year and if they can continue, it can be a special season at Celtic Park.

There was likely some trepidation early in the week when rumors surfaced that Leigh Griffiths hamstring could cause him to miss Saturday’s match. When transfer deadline day passed, much of the Celtic support was upset that another striker was not added to the squad, as if 20 goal strikers grow on trees. Many felt that Moussa Dembele was not showing enough in the first few matches to justify the hype surrounding his signing this summer and were afraid if Griffiths was injured or suspended, Celtic would not be able to score goals.

After Dembele’s performance Saturday, can we all just stop this ridiculous behavior of writing off players after five matches? Dembele netted three goals against Celtic’s Glaswegian rivals and had an xG total in the match of 1.66,.This would have been the 11th highest of any striker in the SPFL for the whole season! He did that in one game.

In addition to his goal-scoring prowess Saturday, Dembele also contributed an assist on Scott Sinclair’s goal. Maybe we should all wait longer than five matches before we write off a 20 year old hot prospect who EPL and La Liga clubs were also interested in signing.

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