CONCACAF WCQ: Will favorites survive semifinal round?
ST. LOUIS --
CONCACAF started the World Cup qualifying process in March. The first three rounds pared down the field to six teams. Those determined qualifiers now join with the heavyweights of the region ahead of the semifinal round poised to start on Friday.
The structure -- three groups of four teams -- leaves little room for chance. The stakes are high during the six-game, round-robin schedule. And every team -- from Mexico to St. Vincent and the Grenadines -- must navigate it well enough to finish in the top two in the group and secure a place in the Hexagonal.
“The start of World Cup qualifying is exciting,” U.S. captain Michael Bradley said on Thursday afternoon. “For us, we play to get to World Cup. The World Cups, for us, are the pinnacle. They are what it is all about. The journey is long. It takes us a lot of different places and a lot of different games. And that starts tomorrow night. You can only be excited about that.”
It is a task the Americans and the other 11 teams involved in the semifinal round must carry out with care. Here is our look at the gauntlet ahead over the next six matches.
GROUP A
Canada, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico
All of the pressure in this group falls squarely on Mexico. El Tri is in the midst of yet another transition phase after Juan Carlos Osorio took permanent control in the wake of the CONCACAF Cup victory over the United States. Osorio must establish his framework quickly to ensure Mexico addresses its frustrating habit of dropping points to lesser teams in World Cup qualifying. This squad -- particularly with Javier Hernández in such torrid form -- is strong enough to march through this group with minimal fuss.
GROUP A KEY MATCHES
DATE | FIXTURE |
Nov. 13, 2015 | Canada -- Honduras |
Nov. 17, 2015 | Honduras -- Mexico |
Sept. 2, 2016 | Honduras -- Canada |
Sept. 6, 2016 | Mexico -- Honduras |
Honduras enters the semifinal round as the most likely contender for second place. Jorge Luis Pinto arrived earlier this year after a wildly successful run with Costa Rica and moved quickly to reinforce the team. The project remains in progress after a poor Gold Cup. The lack of thrust is a concern after Anderlecht winger Andy Najar removed himself from consideration for personal reasons, but Pinto plans to set out an organized stall to compensate for those potential issues.
Canada harbors realistic ambitions of pipping the Hondurans to second place, but the memories of the 2014 qualifying campaign still linger. Benito Floro is primarily focused on frustration from a tactical perspective as a means of compensating for a dearth of creativity and sharpness in the final third. Expect the talented Canadian midfield -- led by Besiktas midfielder Atiba Hutchinson -- to form the basis of any challenge. The long-awaited addition of Junior Hoilett provides a boost, too.
Persistent off-the-field problems threaten to undermine El Salvador in the buildup to qualifying. Another wage row plunged the preparations into chaos and prompted Ramon Maradiaga to summon several domestic-based options to fill out his squad. The lack of depth within the ranks leaves little room for error.
GROUP B
Costa Rica, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama
This group offers the most parity in the semifinal round. All four sides boast a reasonable chance to reach the Hex. The state of play places considerable emphasis on protecting home soil and taking full advantage of any opportunities presented on the road.
GROUP B KEY MATCHES
DATE | FIXTURE |
Nov. 13, 2015 |
Jamaica -- Panama |
Nov. 17, 2015 | Panama -- Costa Rica |
March 25, 2015 | Jamaica -- Costa Rica |
Sept. 6, 2016 | Costa Rica -- Panama |
Costa Rica is in the midst of an evolution after the appointment of Oscar Ramirez earlier this year. Most of the familiar faces return after the World Cup quarterfinal run a year ago. Ramirez even retained the five-man defense deployed by Jorge Luis Pinto. There are cracks emerging in that shape, though. Most of the responsibility falls upon Joel Campbell and Bryan Ruiz to ensure there is enough firepower to mask over any cracks.
Jamaica survived an almighty third-round scare from Nicaragua to reach this point. The narrow victory over two legs provided a dose of reality after the heady run to the CONCACAF Gold Cup final earlier this summer. This group relies on a firm defensive foundation -- Michael Hector and Wes Morgan form a particularly defiant center back partnership -- and pace in the wide areas to unsettle the opposition. Look for Birmingham City forward Clayton Donaldson to offer a new dynamic up front.
This is the last chance for the golden generation in Panama to deliver that elusive World Cup berth. This difficult semifinal group offers no favors, while Roman Torres’ knee injury strips away the bedrock of the defensive efforts. Even with those factors in play, Los Canaleros present an awkward test for any CONCACAF opponent with their mixture of combative defiance and considerable pace. The looming question for Hernan Dario Gomez: Can this group summon the necessary sharpness in the final third?
Haiti impressed during the Gold Cup this summer and reached the quarterfinals for the first time since 2009. Haitian boss Marc Collat added some necessary organization to a group with considerable ability on the break. Those principles -- soak up pressure and then spring forward on the counter -- offer a way forward in this difficult group.
GROUP C
Guatemala, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, United States
The setbacks incurred over the past few months increase the pressure on the United States heading into World Cup qualifying. This forgiving group provides Jurgen Klinsmann with a chance to continue his quest for players capable of contributing in 2018. It is on those players to rise to the occasion here to ensure this round proceeds according to plan.
GROUP C KEY MATCHES
DATE | FIXTURE |
Nov. 13, 2015 | Guatemala -- Trinidad & Tobago |
Nov. 17, 2015 | Trinidad & Tobago -- United States |
March 25, 2016 | Guatemala -- United States |
Sept. 6, 2016 | United States -- Trinidad & Tobago |
The fortune of a kind draw placed Trinidad and Tobago in position to return to the Hexagonal for the first time since the 2006 World Cup qualifying campaign. Veteran forward Kenwyne Jones remains the key figure after leading the line in the Gold Cup this summer. Jones offers a galvanizing presence for a side with plenty of potential and plenty of youth. This group presents a welcome opportunity to continue the recent progress.
Guatemala enters this semifinal round with only an outside shot of disrupting the top two sides. This group still relies heavily on Carlos Ruiz to score goals and Marco Pappa to supply him from midfield. The limitations within the ranks were evident in the nervy third-round victory over Antigua and Barbuda and the heavy defeat to the United States in the buildup to the Gold Cup. This group must maintain its recent solidity in order to have any chance of sneaking through.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines returns to the semifinal stage for the first time since the 2006 World Cup qualifying campaign. This is a youthful, energetic group comprised primarily of domestic-based amateurs. Their efforts proved enough to navigate Guyana and Aruba to reach this stage. It remains to be seen whether this group can pose a genuine threat to qualify in these circumstances, however.