D.C. United follow Portland Timbers' MLS Cup-winning blueprint into playoffs
For most of this year, D.C. United haven't been a team anyone would count on for consistent wins. It's only lately that they've flipped a switch — and now they've won their last four matches and haven't lost in seven. After a full season of being average, now they look like a team that could make a run deep into the playoffs, seemingly out of nowhere.
If that sounds familiar, it's because that's mostly how it went when the Portland Timbers won the MLS Cup last year. They were a pretty average team all year, but they got hot in the last few matches of the season, peaked at the right time and surprised everyone by winning an MLS Cup. In that sense, the 2015 Timbers may be the perfect blueprint for a team like D.C. United.
D.C. United clinched a spot in the playoffs on Sunday with a resounding 3-1 win over New York City FC — but more than that, they continued to build on the momentum they will need to try to fight their way to the MLS Cup. After all, playoffs don't necessarily reward the team that was the best all year; it's about who can be the best at the right time.
The team out of the nation's capital is looking like it could be them. DCU hadn't won back-to-back games all year up until their current streak. After Sunday, they have won four in a row for the first time since 2014, a dominant year when they finished No. 1 in the Eastern Conference. They are in their best form in years and it may prove to be the same kind of push the Timbers saw at the end of last season.
For D.C. United, their revelation has been a long time coming, much like it seemed to be for Portland last fall. DCU started looking better than their results let on as they approached the final stretch of the MLS season and only recently have they started to finish their chances and get results. But it was a change in their formation and personnel that sparked the shift in their performances.
The summer acquisition of Patrick Mullins has been a key boost for D.C. United in the second half of the season. The youngster has scored eight goals plus two assists since arriving in July, putting him just behind Lamar Neagle on the team leaderboard. But more than scoring, Mullins' hold-up play and creative ball distribution have helped change the way D.C. United plays. His arrival ushered in a tactical change from coach Ben Olsen that saw the team switch to something resembling a 4-1-4-1 with Mullins alone up top, which has helped the team solidify an attacking identity and attack with purpose.
Mullins scored D.C.'s first goal in a 3-1 romp past New York City FC on Sunday, a crucial win that officially got DCU into the playoffs.
.@pmullins14 CAN'T STOP SCORING. #DCvNYC https://t.co/mQwejZcwQk
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 16, 2016
For Portland, the impetus for their late-season run was somewhat similar. Their surge in form came right as coach Caleb Porter switched to an attacking 4-3-3 formation that saw Darlington Nagbe pushed centrally, where he was able to make a greater impact. The result was a string of wins to close out their last three regular-season games, the last two of those lopsided blowouts. The Timbers eventually went unbeaten in nine games to secure the MLS Cup trophy.
Looking at this past season as a whole, the New York Red Bulls, New York City FC and Toronto FC are probably still the favorites in the Eastern Conference for the year. The top three teams have been consistently the best of the East for months now and each team is stacked with huge attacking talent. But there is something to be said about momentum and the right mentality as playoffs approach. DCU handed NYCFC a tough blow in the second-to-last match of the season Sunday and they did the same to Toronto in the match prior.
The risk for D.C. United is that perhaps they've been too hot for too long already. It happens all the time in sports: a team surges early but can't sustain it and peters out. In other words, peaking too early is a concern in a league as tight as MLS. For the Timbers, their pre-playoffs surge happened in the final three matches of the regular season, but DCU have been red-hot for four games already with one more left to finish the regular season next week.
But as DCU keep winning, they only seem to be getting stronger. In some ways, peaking at the right time may have more to do with confidence than anything else physical or technical. Wins and losses can snowball into airy confidence or an unshakable boogeyman that stifles a player's best. The question for DCU may be whether they can stay hot for one more week and continue through the playoffs the same way.
They haven't showed any signs of slowing down and the Soccer Gods may be firmly on their side now. DCU have probably earned it, too. They have scored multiple goals in eight consecutive matches now and they've gone from a team that once seemed to look for lucky breakthrough goals to one that imposes itself on matches and is constantly dangerous.
At this point, no team should want to face D.C. United in the playoffs. The precedent set by the Timbers makes it hard to ignore DCU's late-season surge. Other teams can dismiss D.C. United's recent form at their peril.
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