Euro, Copa América semifinals predictions, picks by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
Overall tournament record: 18-24, -4.9 units
What a month it has been for soccer fans and bettors, as we've gotten to watch all the fun Euro and Copa América action on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
When it comes to gambling on these matches, I'll always try to give you my best bets. Basically, if I see an edge, and I'm betting on it, I'll share it. I want us all to win.
I believe in transparency, so I always like to share my betting record. You will see it above.
Remember, only bet what you are comfortable with.
We're in the home stretch now, so let's finish strong.
(All times ET)
Spain vs. France, 3 p.m. Tuesday, FOX and FOX Sports app
We said last round that every France knockout round match under Didier Deschamps followed the same script: French opponent looks like it has France on its heels, then comes a France goal for a 1-0 win or a win in penalties. France will ugly up this match too, as Spain has been the best team in the tournament, and it can't be allowed too much space.
Is Kylian Mbappé fit? Remember, he asked to come off in extra time against Portugal and is still dealing with a broken nose and trying to be comfortable with that mask. Spain is down three players because of injuries and suspension — two on the backline — so does that offer France a glimmer of hope of getting its first goal during the run of play?
Curious to see if Camavinga gets the nod over Rabiot. France certainly looked much more dangerous last game, with Camavinga starting for the suspended Rabiot.
Either way, expect this to be tight and tense, which means Under 2.5.
PICK: Spain-France Draw (+195)
PICK: Under 2.5 goals
Netherlands vs. England, 3 p.m. Wednesday, FOX and FOX Sports app
Every England match has the life sucked out of it and this one is likely going to be no different.
There’s a lot of familiarity between the two sides, especially on the Dutch backline, as Virgil van Djik and Nathan Ake both star in the Premier League. They’ll know the English players' tendencies quite well.
I'm curious to see if Ronald Koemans tinkers with the lineup, as Memphis Depay hasn’t done much in the tournament. Could Malen or Frimpong get a start? Regardless, both of England’s knockout round matches went to extra time and this one is probably going to as well.
PICK: England-Netherlands Draw (+215)
PICK: Under 2.5 goals
Argentina vs. Canada, 8 p.m. Tuesday, FS1 and FOX Sports app
This match should be fairly straightforward, as it was in the first meeting. Canada had a good chance about 30 minutes in, and after that, it never felt like Argentina was threatened. In that match, Argentina had 3.38 Expected Goals (xG) and a repeat of that will probably result in a dominant, if not more dominant, win. Outside the stoppage time goal against Ecuador, Argentina hasn’t conceded a goal in the tournament and likely won’t here.
PICK: Argentina HT/FT (-110)
PICK: Canada Under 0.5 goals (-135)
UEFA Euro 2024 Semi-Finals Gambling Guide
Player of the Tournament
There are still some opportunities in the Player of the Tournament market because the players one would have expected to win the award if England or France won the tournament have underwhelmed.
France is at this stage of the competition because of its defense. Mike Maignan was incredible against Portugal and has only allowed a Robert Lewandowski penalty. William Saliba has been talked up throughout the entire tournament as potentially the best center back in the world. If France wins, either of these two is your likely award winner. The same goes for England, where neither Harry Kane nor Jude Bellingham, outside of the magic vs. Slovakia has been the starring force. Honestly, nobody really has, but Bukayo Saka is worth a play at this number. Saka saved England against Switzerland, just like Bellingham did against Slovakia, and then converted a penalty.
One of the sadder stories of the last Euro tournament was the racist abuse Saka took after missing a penalty. If England wins the next two matches and Saka has two solid games, I can easily see him being the winner.
PICK: Mike Maignan +5000 Player of Tournament (1/2 unit)
PICK: William Saliba +2000 Player of Tournament (1/2 unit)
PICK: Bukayo Saka +3000 Player of Tournament (1/2 unit)
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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