Is Gareth Southgate a viable candidate for the USMNT coaching vacancy? It's complicated.
Gareth Southgate is out of a job, resigning from his England post after reaching the final of Euro 2024. The United States men's national team needs a coach, after firing Gregg Berhalter following its Copa América group stage exit.
Southgate has a track record of success, reaching two major finals, a semifinal and a quarterfinal while with England. The USMNT craves success, having won just one World Cup knockout round game in the past 94 years.
Could this be a match made in soccer nirvana? Could the timing even be related? Is the U.S. about to land one of the biggest names in soccer coaching, hot on the heels of him coming within a whisker of lifting the sport's second-biggest trophy?
Yes, no, maybe? Or how about maybe, no, and probably not?
[RELATED: 10 USMNT coaching candidates to watch, including Gareth Southage]
It is not impossible that Southgate could wind up leading the Americans at a home World Cup in 2026, which will of course be staged collectively along with Canada and Mexico. International soccer moves in mysterious ways, and change can take place with stunning rapidity. The two most dangerous words in soccer speculation are "impossible" and "never."
As things stand, however, there are a number of factors standing in the way of such a switch, ranging from personal preference to monetary minefields to structural suitability, and all kinds of other things devoid of alliteration.
The widespread belief in English soccer circles is that Southgate's strong preference is for a leading club job, ideally with one of the biggest teams in the English Premier League. He has long been linked with Manchester United, based off his close friendship with Sir Dave Brailsford, right-hand man to United's most influential co-owner, Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
While current coach Erik ten Hag was retained despite the team's dismal eighth-place finish in the EPL, he is on a short leash. If United struggles again and ten Hag is relieved of his duties, Southgate would immediately become the favorite to take over.
During the Euros, the 53-year-old appeared to be subtly, or not so subtly, touting his attributes and highlighting how much he has grown since his previous foray into club management. He was in charge at Middlesbrough from 2006-2009, but ended up losing his job after the team was relegated from the EPL.
"In terms of the experience, of course, every game that you manage, every tournament you manage, you learn so much," he told reporters last week. "When I took this job, I'd had three years as a Premier League manager. I've now had 100 internationals and some of the biggest games in world football.
"You learn all the time from that. You are definitely much better prepared because every experience you go through, you learn from. You are improving all the time, your knowledge, your understanding."
Take that as you like, but if it sounds to you like a "hey guys" aimed at the ears of boardroom decision-makers of EPL teams, you wouldn't be the only one.
Gareth Southgate's full press conference following England's loss vs. Spain | UEFA Euro 2024
In practical terms, if US Soccer decided he was the right man, one of the big things that would need to be overcome would be money. If Southgate believes he can get a solid EPL job, he could be expected to command in excess of $12 million. A top end job at a marquee club, and that amount could leap to comfortably in excess of $15 million.
He was the highest paid manager at Euro 2024, but made only around $6 million annually with England. Berhalter's best-paid year with the USMNT saw him collect around $2.3 million, including World Cup bonuses for getting past the group stage.
That's all because of the relative fiscal power of club soccer. Clubs in the biggest leagues generate such massive revenues that they can usually afford far higher prices than national teams.
Even England is going to run into this. Newcastle's Eddie Howe is one of the contenders to replace Southgate with the Three Lions, but would probably have to take a pay cut to do so. England's Football Association may also have to pay compensation to release him from his contract.
Southgate does like and appreciate American sports and American soccer. He has spoken previously of his interest in how Major League Soccer has developed and said he believes the country has a lot to offer the sport.
He was also close with Berhalter, the pair striking up a friendship as fellow national team coaches, one that was briefly put on hold before the 0-0 draw between the teams at the World Cup in Qatar.
"I think an important couple of things were, how to rely on younger players, how to rebuild the player pool, how to really give the group an identity that is closely linked to the identity of who you are as a country and then also how players may view the national team," Berhalter told the Telegraph in 2022, when asked what key pieces of advice Southgate had offered.
[RELATED: Who will replace Gareth Southgate as England manager?]
In terms of a soccer fit, Southgate could actually be a good one for the U.S., in a certain sense. If the only thing that matters is results, then Southgate has a tremendous track record.
England had a habit of dispiriting recent failures. Southgate's tactical style was rarely pretty, but he ground out wins.
He believes in process. He took a forensic approach to getting the squad ready for penalty kicks. The game plan for this tournament was all about being possession based. At times, frankly, it was as boring as heck, but England won its group, came from behind to beat Slovakia, did so again to oust Switzerland on penalties, and once more to get by the Netherlands in the semis.
The team even levelled things up in the final against Spain, before losing to Mikel Oyarzabal's late winner.
Southgate's biggest issue was that he was more reactive than incisive with key substitutions, and couldn't work out how to get freakishly talented players like Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden on the same page.
The U.S. just doesn't have any players on that worldly scale of ability, effectively eliminating that specific problem.
The national team is at a stage where it just needs to get results. Soccer in America is growing rapidly, but the USMNT's outcomes in big tournaments haven't kept pace. A run to the World Cup quarterfinals in 2002 is long enough ago that it was spearheaded by Landon Donovan, then barely out of his teens, now retired from national team duty for the past decade and commentating for FOX Sports.
If we want to talk about a national team fitting its country's psychology, winning is what matters here. For soccer to take a transcendent leap, a deep, serious run at a World Cup is probably the only thing that can make it happen.
There's not much middle ground, not even in who ends up with the job. It seems like to either be a homegrown candidate from MLS, such as LAFC's Steve Cherundolo, or a big-name international coach – Jurgen Klopp's name was mentioned but it went nowhere, while Spain's Euro 2024 champion Luis de la Fuente is reportedly interested.
Southgate is used to such stakes. He always acknowledged that his time with England would be ultimately judged not by how close they got, but by whether he brought the country its first trophy since 1966.
All of nothing. Just like now.
If all the obstacles outlined here can magically be overcome; the money, the skepticism, Southgate's own wishes, then get ready for an intriguing new era with him taking over.
More than likely, at least one of the stumbling blocks will be too great, and he won't.
UEFA Euro 2024: Top 10 Goals of the Tournament
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX.
