The lengthy trip to New Zealand two years ago provided Mexico with yet another lesson about the perils of World Cup qualifying.
After muddling through the Hexagonal and somehow coming within minutes of missing out altogether, El Tri required a playoff against the All Whites to secure a place in Brazil at the last possible moment. Everything came together in the end to march through that two-legged tie, but the entire ordeal proved a humbling experience for a squad with the ability to qualify with few hitches.
It is now time to see whether Mexico has finally taken heed of the arduous qualifying experiences in the past few cycles. The decision to appoint Juan Carlos Osorio hinted at a long-term approach. The tribulations of the past few months revealed a desire to halt the inevitable churn in the dugout.
Osorio is charged with delivering the results required to justify his continued employment and navigate through the challenges ahead with a minimum of fuss. It is on him to produce the answers to some key questions along the way to fulfill that brief and set Mexico on the proper course as World Cup qualifying commences on Friday.
Is flexibility a hindrance or a virtue?
This core question stems from Osorio’s measured approach to each individual match. Osorio delved into a lengthy discourse on Monday about the relative tactical merits of El Salvador and Honduras and noted the need to respond accordingly. The dialogue represented a marked shift from Miguel Herrera’s emphasis on consistency and underscored the shift in philosophy in this new regime.
Osorio’s willingness to tinker extends through individual player selections. There are positional shifts ahead for a couple of players -- Miguel Layún is now expected to play on the right with Paul Aguilar ruled out, while Jesús Corona and Carlos Vela are other candidates to move around -- as Osorio tries to wring the most out of his squad.
“We seek those interchanges,” Osorio said. “It is up to us to specifically know the end product without trying to change our players.”
The key for Osorio: figuring out how to balance all of these moving parts without sacrificing the performances. El Tri floundered amidst a raft of changes during the last qualifying phase. The lack of cadence and incisiveness led to frustration as opponents sat back, soaked up pressure and struck on the counter. Those issues nearly cost them a berth at the World Cup. It is up to Osorio to establish the necessary framework to ensure his alterations do not lead to the same problems this time around.
How much rotation is too much rotation?
The same principles apply to Osorio’s penchant for squad rotation. He promised alterations between the two qualifiers to ensure the proper level of fitness and reflect the various demands placed on his squad.
“We are working on the design, but we know this will change,” Osorio said. “We hope the players will stay with the ideas that we have, but we are flexible enough to understand the situations and our health status. There are players who are continually playing, like Javier Hernández with his important goals. With Rafael Márquez in Verona, we talked about the risk of playing games without little recovery time. We will evaluate everyone because we want our players to be 100 percent in the two games.”
The decision to rotate is a logical one given the depth in certain areas, but it also poses an issue at this nascent stage of his reign. There is a need for coherency first and foremost. Those competing concerns place considerable emphasis on implementing the necessary foundation in the buildup this week and relying on those players to adjust on the fly.
Are there changes ahead up front?
Osorio faces a particularly difficult quandary as he assesses his options up front. Mexico boasts a wealth of options with Javier Hernández, Raúl Jiménez, Oribe Peralta and Carlos Vela all in the reckoning.
The strength of that group -- the deepest and most dynamic of any single position for any country in CONCACAF -- plays a factor in the composition of the side. Osorio prefers to play with one center forward, but he understands the need to rely on the strength of his side.
“There is always going to be the same structure, but we are flexible,” Osorio said. “There are positions where we have to reconsider the way in which we identify ourselves. Normally, I play with one forward, but with Raúl Jiménez, Javier Hernández and Oribe Peralta in a good moment, we are considering playing two number nines.”
Hernández is an almost certain selection given his recent form (eight goals in his past six appearances for Bayer Leverkusen), but the status of his partner remains uncertain. Peralta is the most natural fit given his ability to hold up the play and win balls in the air, while Jiménez and Vela supply their own qualities.
There is a knock-on effect in other areas, though. The decision to play two up front limits Osorio’s flexibility in midfield (the proper deployment of Héctor Herrera in a four-man setup remains a talking point) and reduces the defensive cover to the occasionally vulnerable back four. There are matches -- particularly the game in Honduras and the odd away fixture during the Hexagonal -- where Osorio might sacrifice one of his forwards to provide more solidity.
Who will feature in goal?
The decision to recall Guillermo Ochoa added a new layer to the ongoing debate for the No. 1 shirt. Ochoa is the most talented option in the pool, but he sits on the bench at Malaga week after week. His predicament opens the door for Moises Munoz or Alfredo Talavera to stake their claim to the shirt under the new regime. Jesús Corona and Jonathan Orozco are also in the frame moving forward, according to Osorio.
“Goalkeeping is very specific,” Talavera told reporters earlier this week. “Goalkeepers need continuity, those minutes to keep rhythm and be in time, which is what is needed. Guillermo Ochoa is in good shape and keeps up with me and Moises Muñoz. I just hope for the opportunity. I just hope for the opportunity until we know who will play. Until we know, I will just be patient.”
Once again, the decision is a particular one in this instance: Does the talent of Ochoa win out? Or is it best to rely on a goalkeeper receiving regular match practice instead?
When will the reinforcements arrive?
At some point during this qualifying cycle, Mexico needs to integrate some of the promising players rising through the particularly successful youth setup. There are a handful of fresh faces in this squad (including Tigres UANL winger Jurgen Damm), but there are a host of others waiting for their opportunity to impress.
It is an inevitable process requiring a deft blend of care and recognition. There are certain positions of need to address by that point (central defense, central midfield and fullback, for example), while other players might simply force their way into reckoning with their performances in Liga MX. It is down to Osorio to figure out the right time to introduce the next crop of players with an eye toward 2018.
“There are players who have status and who have had a great career, but they are not in their best moment,” Osorio said. “What interests us is today. There are others who are going through a good moment. I value them immensely, but I don’t know if they are prepared to assume the responsibility of being in the senior team. I’m referring to Hirving Lozano, Erick Gutierrez and Rodolfo Pizarro, possibly a combination of all of them.
