Ranking the Champions League quarterfinalists by likelihood to advance
The first legs of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals are in the books. There were a total of 10 goals, one red card, another should-have-been red card, plenty of referee outrage and another dozen instances that had some groups of fans up in arms.
The question now is: with 90 (or 120) minutes left in each tie, which teams are most likely to go through to the semifinals?
1. Bayern Munich
It was surprising that Pep Guardiola's men only walked away with a one-goal win in Munich, and they gave up a couple pretty good chances to Benfica as well, but there was no doubt that they were the better team in the match. No team looked as superior to their opponent prior to the quarterfinals and there's no reason to doubt that now.
Most teams go away in search of a draw, and Bayern would be through with that result, but Guardiola will certainly instruct his team to get a win. They probably will, and probably by multiple goals. They're just that much better than Benfica.
2. Manchester City
Fernandinho rescueed a draw for Manchester City and, as importantly, a second away goal.
The Citizens started by feeling lucky that Zlatan Ibrahimovic couldn't score, then thrilled to go ahead, then downtrodden after conceding two (including one they gifted to PSG), then elated to have gotten out of France with a draw and two away goals.
The lesson: who knows how anyone should feel in this tie!
Manchester City didn't look great, but they got a good result, which means ... if you think you know anything after watching that beautiful and amazing disaster of a match, you're lying.
3. Barcelona
Barcelona are lucky to be in the position they're in. First, they saw Fernando Torres sent off, then Luis Suarez kicked out at Juanfran and the referee missed it. Two goals by Suarez followed and the man who shouldn't have been on the pitch had Barcelona on the front foot.
What this really comes down to, though, is Barcelona being the best team in the world. No matter what Atletico Madrid do, they still have to deal with Lionel Messi, Suarez and Neymar. Sergio Busquets makes counterattacking against Barcelona a chore, and Luis Enrique has enough versatility in his squad that he can do any of about 100 things to combat whatever Diego Simeone draws up for Atletico.
What if Suarez is suspended? Barcelona may only have a 50/50 chance to advance. And that's being kind. That potential ban is hanging over the Catalans' heads.
4. Wolfsburg
Party on, Wolfsburg.
Not even Wolfsburg fans could have bet on winning the first leg. There was a chance they'd win, of course, but you'd think that Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Gareth Bale and Co. would score at least one goal.
Wolfsburg somehow kept a clean sheet, though. And now they have to be feeling good.
All the Germans have to do now is score a single goal at the Bernabeu, which is very much in play considering Real's defensive issues, and then the Spaniards need to net four to advance. Basically, one goal and Wolfsburg are sitting pretty. Hmm ...
5. Real Madrid
Real Madrid probably should have considered showing up for the first leg. They beat Barcelona over the weekend, and that's great, but the Catalans are still going to win the league. This match, with an attainable trophy on the line, is the one they looked asleep in?
Ah, the mysteries of Real Madrid.
It's tough to imagine the Merengues keeping a clean sheet in the second half. Their defense -- and that includes a midfield that makes life far too easy for opposing attacks -- is problematic and, if they give up a goal, Real Madrid need to score four. The thing is, Real Madrid could very well do just that.
6. Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid were doing great until Fernando Torres got sent off.
Simeone's men do have a good chance to advance. They probably would have a great shot if they didn't have to play with 10 men for so much of the first leg.
Being down a goal would normally be difficult for a team that excels on the counterattack, but Barcelona are still going to come at Atleti, so Simeone doesn't need to change his tactics and approach too much. Missing Torres will hurt -- he somehow manages to score on Barcelona a lot -- and Barca had trouble with Atleti's frantic pressing. With what will surely be a raucous Estadio Calderon backing Atleti, that press should only be more crazed.
The more you look at Atletico, the more you fancy their chances of advancing. If Suarez is suspended, you have to really like their chances. But betting against Barcelona? That's just not smart.
7. Paris Saint-Germain
PSG let their lead get away and Blaise Matuidi is one of two players suspended for the second leg.
PSG were so close. All they had to do was hold on at 2-1 and they'd have a lead going to England for the second leg. But some hilariously bad defending handed City an equalizer and all of a sudden the Parisians are in trouble.
It's fair to say that PSG and Man City are pretty equal teams. Hell, PSG might even be better. But the second leg is at the Etihad and, more importantly, PSG will be without David Luiz and Blaise Matuidi. The Parisians need to win away and do it without two key players? Oof.
8. Benfica
Benfica are going home, but plotting a win against Bayern Munich is not a job anyone would envy.
Sorry, guys. The reality is that Bayern Munich are really good and you're only kind of good.
There's reason for hope. Playing at home will help and you showed that you can keep Bayern Munich out if you get a lot of luck. Pray for that luck again.
