FIFA Men's World Cup

Soccer odds: How sportsbooks set World Cup odds one year out

Updated Nov. 22, 2021 8:28 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The 2022 FIFA World Cup kicks off one year from now.

Thirty-two countries will compete for a chance to be the best football team on the planet. The group stage begins on November 21, and the final will be played at Lusail Iconic Stadium on December 18.

It’s a later-than-usual start due to 105-degree summer temperatures in Qatar, and this will be the first World Cup not played in May, June or July.

Bookmakers aren’t too worried about the late start.

"It’s always the biggest thing we book in the United Kingdom," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me on a transatlantic phone call. "And this will be the first World Cup in the United States where you’ll have all these states taking bets.

"The handle will easily be in the billions around the world."

Americans alone legally wagered over $500 million on Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And that’s just one game on a Sunday in February. Imagine how quickly the handle will add up over a four-week tournament with the whole world watching and wagering.

"The first week is so much fun," JBB said. "Everybody is watching it and betting it no matter where they are. It’s chaotic. There’s always a shocking result in those first few days. For us, it’s really about trying to manage overreactions. There will be a team that loses or draws its first game, and suddenly everybody thinks the team has no chance. It’s all about managing those overreactions behind the counter."

FOX Bet is already taking bets on the World Cup winner.

"We’ll add more markets once the drawing comes out, and we see who plays who and what the groups look like," JBB said. "Every year, there’s a group of death where three of the four teams would realistically win other groups. We’ll adjust the prices accordingly once the field is set in stone."

Brazil is the most successful country in World Cup history with five titles, but the Brazilians haven’t won it all since 2002. They were bounced in the quarterfinals in 2006 and 2010, finished third in 2014 and lost in the quarters again in 2018.

So is The Seleção the team to beat?

"I don’t think Brazil (+550 at FOX Bet) should be the favorite," JBB opined. "History and prestige are holding the Brazilians there. They’ve been so good for so long, but this team is nowhere near as good as the old teams on paper. Brazil is lacking the firepower that it had in the late 90s, 2002 and 2006.

"I don’t think any of the South American teams are as good as the top four European teams."

Blangsted-Barnor is rather fond of the Three Lions in 2022.

"England’s team is very good," JBB said. "They got to the Euro final this year and the semifinal in the last World Cup. I think they’ll be contenders for a long time. They have so many young players like Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham that will grow together with the group. By the time we get to winter next year, those players will have solid experience and be ready to go.

"I think England (+700 at FOX Bet) is as good as any team in the tournament."

Another betting market that will be very popular is the Golden Boot. That’s the award that goes to the top goal scorer at the World Cup. England’s Harry Kane won it four years ago, and he’ll be one of the heavy hitters in Qatar.

Sportsbooks are well-aware of Kane’s scoring prowess, so good luck finding any "value" betting on him in individual Cup matches. Oddsmakers estimate Kane could be as low as +110 ($10 wins $11) to score a goal.

Sheesh.

"The first thing we look at for Golden Boot is penalty takers," JBB said. "Most of those guys get at least two or three penalties throughout the tournament. Realistically, you want a penalty taker who is also a striker on a team that will go far. Harry Kane immediately comes to mind. Lionel Messi for Argentina is another one. They’ll get their money’s worth.

"The first player that isn’t on penalties that will be right in the mix is France’s Killian Mbappé. He’s absolutely going to be up there. And Romelo Lukaku has scored everywhere he’s been, but you don’t know how deep Belgium will go."

Speaking of deep runs, Croatia was the darling of the 2018 World Cup with a run to the final against France that was more impressive than surprising.

The Croatians were 60-to-1 or higher heading into the tournament, so anybody that placed a future bet at that price was in a tremendous position once they got hot. If you bet $10 on Croatia (to win $600), you could’ve realistically started hedging from the quarters onward.

Are there are any worthwhile sleepers in 2022?

"Sweden (+10000 at FOX Bet) is a team to look out for," JBB prognosticated. "They made a nice run in the Euros, and Alexander Isak is a superstar alongside Emil Forsberg. They made it to the quarterfinals four years ago, and you saw what they were capable of in the Euros."

It felt fitting to end our conversation with the red, white and blue. The United States Men’s National Team didn’t qualify in 2018 due to a loss to Trinidad and Tobago. Yes, that really happened.

The Americans finally phased out some of their older players and rebuilt with a talented, young core. Blangsted-Barnor is very optimistic about the roster and believes the future is promising down the road.

"You look at the U.S. team, and it’s as good as I can remember in my lifetime," he admitted. "You’ve got players that are actually playing for big football clubs. Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams are all-stars, but many of the important pieces are very young. This tournament might come around too early for them in that respect.

"The talent is definitely there, but the following World Cup is when the United States should make some real noise. That’s the one to get excited for in 2026."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!