The USMNT would be better off in World Cup qualifying if they lost to Trinidad and Tobago
If the United States beat Trinidad and Tobago on Tuesday, they will win Group C in the semifinal round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. It's not something that's just expected -- the Americans are historically dominant on home soil in qualifying -- but also viewed as a positive. After all, first place is better than second place. Except in this case it's not. The Americans would be better off finishing in second place.
The top two teams from the group both advance and the Americans are all but guaranteed to be in that top two. There is no real competitive advantage to finishing first over second either, with the final round being a double round-robin and all the teams being thrown into a random draw for scheduling. But the draw was already held and, as luck had it, the schedule for the second-place team in the United States' group is much easier than the schedule for the first-place team.
The team that finishes first in Group C will play Mexico at home, then likely Costa Rica away for their first two games of the Hex in November. That's a very tough start to things and if the Americans win Group C, they might find themselves in an early hole in the Hex.
On top of that, the U.S. would have to play at Mexico in June, which is historically the second hottest month in Mexico City. Considering the extreme heat at Estadio Azteca is one of the reasons it can be among the hardest places in the world to play, it's something the Americans would like to avoid.
Finally, finishing first in Group C would mean that the U.S. would have to finish the Hex away from home. The U.S. haven't lost a qualifier on American soil since 2001, so they have a huge home-field advantage and would probably like to finish the round with a home match, just in case they need it to qualify.
It's not as if finishing first in Group C is a complete waste. They do get to play every home match of the Hex on a Friday if they top the group, which would probably mean bigger and more boisterous crowds. There's also the optimists view that if they can get four (or even six) points from their first two matches against Mexico and Costa Rica then they're sitting pretty for the rest of the Hex.
Still, finishing second in the group looks a lot better. They would host Costa Rica to open the Hex then head to Honduras or Canada (depending on which team advances). That's not too bad. The Americans also wouldn't visit Mexico until October, when the weather is cooler. The match would be the first match of the FIFA double date, so the team would have several days to acclimate to Mexico City's altitude, if they wanted to fly in early. Toss in it spreading their toughest matches out throughout the year-long Hex so they don't have any harrowing back-to-backs and you have a much kinder schedule.
Of course, the U.S. will try to win their match against Trinidad and Tobago. Winning is always good and Jurgen Klinsmann will be happy to get some momentum heading into October's friendlies and then the Hex in November. Everyone always wants to finish in first place, too. The Americans will probably win and Klinsmann and Co. can rightly say they did their job. Because they will have.
Afterward, the U.S. will say they like their Hex schedule and think they have a great chance to get two good results right from the start. That they can't wait to get to Columbus, Ohio to play Mexico in November, and that they'll be hoping for some cold weather. Again, as they should.
But as they do, it will be hard to look at the Hex schedule for the second-place team in Group C. It really does look a lot easier.
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