USMNT faces Panama with World Cup berth in sight ... again
By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer
ORLANDO — Four-and-a-half years ago, the U.S. Men’s National Team had a World Cup berth in their sights.
All the Americans needed to do in October 2017 was defeat Panama in Central Florida, then not lose in Trinidad and Tobago three days later to reach the 2018 event.
Then, as now, nerves were frayed heading into that must-win penultimate qualifier against Panama, before a teenage Christian Pulisic gave the hosts the lead eight minutes in, sending the USMNT on their way to a commanding 4-0 victory. The Americans appeared destined that night to extend their streak to eight consecutive World Cup appearances.
We all know how the trip to Trinidad turned out.
This time, though, a victory over the same Canaleros team in the same Exploria Stadium on Sunday (7 p.m. ET, FS1 and the FOX Sports app) at the same stage of qualifying should be enough on its own to send the USMNT to Qatar 2022. If Costa Rica don't win in El Salvador in a match that will finish before the U.S. kick off, it will be for sure.
Do USMNT have to finish first within CONCACAF?
"We just know this opportunity that we have is really special," U.S. keeper Zack Steffen said before the team went through their final training session Saturday. "We're not taking it for granted."
Even if fourth-place Costa Rica win their last two matches, including the finale at home vs. the Americans on Wednesday, they would still have to make up a minus-7 goal differential to knock the U.S. out of CONCACAF’s top three and direct qualification to Qatar. A U.S. tie with Panama would assure them no worse than fourth and a spot in the winnable intercontinental playoff against Oceania’s champion (almost surely New Zealand) in Doha that comes with it.
Still, victory Sunday is the only acceptable result for coach Gregg Berhalter’s team. Yet while the Americans are heavy favorites, U.S. fans still stung by that stunning 2017 defeat to T&T know all too well not to count their chickens in advance.
Upsets are frequent in low-scoring sports such as soccer, especially with the parity between nations exploding at the international level. With huge stakes and next to no time to prepare for these massively consequential games, World Cup qualifying is even more susceptible to wild outcomes. Just ask four-time world champion Italy, which won the European title last summer but will miss its second straight World Cup after an unthinkable defeat, at home, to North Macedonia.
Berhalter sure isn’t expecting another 4-0 rout like the one in 2017. "I don't think we're presumptuous enough to think that we're going to win this game in a blowout," he said. "Panama is a good team."
American supporters can’t be blamed for being skittish. Five lineup regulars (Brenden Aaronson, Sergiño Dest, Weston McKennie, Chris Richards, Matt Turner) are out of this three-game window due to injuries. Two starters (Tim Weah, DeAndre Yedlin) from Thursday’s scoreless draw in Mexico will miss Sunday’s match because of yellow card accumulation.
Right back, the deepest position in the USMNT player pool, is likely to be manned by Berhalter’s fourth option, Shaq Moore, with Dest, Yedlin and Reggie Cannon (positive COVID test) unavailable.
Lynchpins Pulisic, Tyler Adams and the other surefire starters who played big minutes Thursday have just two days to recover from the travel and the massive effort they expended to secure a point in the thin air south of the border. Gio Reyna, who nearly set up a winning goal off the bench at Estadio Azteca, still isn’t fully fit after returning from a torn hamstring.
It’s also worth noting that the U.S. are winless in the middle game of the three previous triple-match windows. The U.S. settled for a disappointing tie against Canada in Nashville in September and lost on the road in the return match and in Panama City in October.
Historically, Panama have been a low-key tricky foe. While the U.S. hold a lopsided 16-2-6 record in the all-time series, Los Canaleros match up physically with the U.S. better than many CONCACAF opponents. They have topped the Americans twice on home soil in their past 10 games, at the 2011 and 2015 Gold Cups (the latter, on penalty kicks in the third-place match, was officially ruled a draw). And of course, Panama is the only team other than Canada to beat the U.S. during the Octagonal.
"They're elite at finishing off crosses," Berhalter said. "We have to be aware of that because that can hurt us."
One thing that could work in the Stars and Stripes’ favor is the visitors’ desperation. Last-place Honduras held Panama to a draw at home Thursday, which means anything other than three points Sunday could end their World Cup aspirations. They’ll have to take some risks defensively because of it.
"If that leads to them getting unbalanced, I think it's good for us," Berhalter said.
Either way, the depleted U.S. are still the deeper, more talented squad. They should expect to be rewarded accordingly if they perform anywhere close to their best. They’re certainly not burdened by the failure of an almost entirely different U.S. squad more than four years ago.
"I know there are similarities to last time, but we're looking forward," Berhalter said. "We have to forge our own path."
"We all want to win," Steffen said of Sunday’s challenge. "We're willing to do whatever it takes."
This time, that ought to be enough.
One of the most prominent soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams in more than a dozen countries, including multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports, the New York City native was a staff writer for Yahoo Sports and ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.
