What does the expanded 48-team World Cup mean for the USMNT and Mexico?
The 2026 World Cup will see an extra 16 teams added for a 48-team format. That's a major change and the biggest expansion in the history of the World Cup.
All the way up to the tournament, people will debate how wise it is and what it will mean for the World Cup. Will the format fall on its face because of the weird three-team groups? Or diluted play? Or maybe it will be great because it sets the stage for upsets, plus more soccer is always good?
There is a lot about the effects of the 48-team World Cup that is up in the air. But one thing that is pretty clear is that the format change should be a big help for the United States and Mexico.
While we joke about how the U.S. and Mexico are essentially guarantees to qualify for every World Cup because they're so much better than their CONCACAF competition, Mexico only qualified for 2014 because they got a gift from the U.S. and then won a playoff. Meanwhile, the Americans are currently dead last in qualifying for 2018. The two North American powers are undoubtedly heavy favorites to qualify for each World Cup, but it's not a guarantee.
Under the expanded World Cup format, the U.S. and Mexico really will be guarantees. FIFA has yet to decide exactly how many spots in the World Cup each confederation will get, but they will all certainly get more. It's hard to imagine CONCACAF not getting at least five spots -- they currently get 3.5 -- and it's likely they get six. Basically, the entire Hex would qualify for the World Cup.
A 48-team World Cup is all but a guaranteed for the U.S. and Mexico to qualify.
On top of that, things get a bit easier at the World Cup for the two teams. They'll enter groups where two of three teams advance, instead of two of four. And because the World Cup is bigger, there will be some weaker teams in it and they could have a vastly inferior team than them in their group. Their chances of advancement to the knockout stages will be higher than ever.
The format change isn't without downside for the U.S. and Mexico. Qualification will be less intense and they will likely have fewer important, competitive matches than before. That's not great for interest or development. But walking into the World Cup isn't so bad.
There is one way this all gets flipped upside down, though -- if CONCACAF and CONMEBOL qualifying is merged into one.
There have been suggestions that FIFA may ask the two confederations to hold qualifying together. This move would be consistent with the closer relationship that the two have had of late, as evidenced by Copa America Centenario, which brought the two together in a mega tournament. It would also help alleviate some of the concerns that qualifying would be be too easy in both CONCACAF and CONMEBOL.
Of course, doing so would eliminate the U.S. and Mexico's near-assured qualification and flip the upside into one where they have more competitive matches against top opponents. Getting to play qualifiers against the likes of Argentina and Brazil is exciting and a chance to really be among the best, but it comes with the threat of not qualifying.
For now, merging the two confederations' qualifying is still just an idea that has been thrown out there and has no formal support. More likely, we are looking at CONCACAF keeping its own qualifying, but with more World Cup spots. That makes the U.S. and Mexico's qualification all but guarantees, and with an easier start to the World Cup to boot.
How the 48-team World Cup plays out is still to be determined. But at least for the U.S. and Mexico, it looks pretty good.
