What would be a good week of USMNT World Cup qualifying? What would be a flop?
The United States head into this set of international matches with a pair of World Cup qualifiers awaiting them. The first of them is in Guatemala City, and then they will head to Columbus, Ohio where they will take on Guatemala once more.
Where are the U.S. in qualifying?
This is the semifinal round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. There are 12 teams left in the competition, split into three groups of four. The Americans are in Group C with Trinidad and Tobago, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and, of course, Guatemala. The top two teams from the group will advance to the final round of qualifying.
Each team has played two of six matches in this round so far.
What place are the U.S. in?
The U.S. are tied for first with Trinidad and Tobago. They have four points after beating St. Vincent and the Grenadines at home and drawing the Soca Warriors in Trinidad and Tobago.
Guatemala are one point back in third place. St. Vincent and the Grenadines have zero points.
Does it matter if the U.S. wins the group?
No.
The group winners get no advantage in the next round. First and second place are the exact same thing, but winning things is nice ... so there's that.
What would be good results for the U.S. in these two matches?
Obviously, winning both matches would be ideal. It's realistic too. The Americans haven't lost to Guatemala since 1988 and will be favorites to win both contests. Going away is never easy and winning in Guatemala City is not a given, but the U.S. can do it and it wouldn't be a shock.
If the U.S. win both matches, they will almost certainly clinch a spot in the final round of qualifying. Whether they actually do depends on whether Trinidad and Tobago win their two matches against St. Vincent and the Grenadines, but that's likely. In all likelihood, win two and the U.S. go on with two matches to spare.
What would be OK results for the U.S. in these two matches?
If the U.S. draw in Guatemala City and then win at home, they'll have done a solid job. It won't be amazing, but they'll be well on their way to advancing to the next round and you can say they did what they were supposed to do.
A loss in Guatemala City and then a win at home wouldn't be nearly as encouraging, but they would still be in decent shape to advance in qualifying. A one-point cushion on Guatemala isn't ideal, and it may force them to get wins at St. Vincent and the Grenadines; then again at home against Trinidad and Tobago, but those are results the U.S. should get. It just means the Americans have largely squandered any possible room for error going into the last two matches and they are susceptible to going out of World Cup qualifying with bad luck or a referee's terrible call.
What would be terrible results for the U.S. in these two matches?
The U.S. need to win at least one of these two contests. If they can't win either, they're in a whole lot of trouble.
For one, it would mean they struggled against a team they are spectacularly more talented than. It would also be a continuance of the rough 18 months Jurgen Klinsmann's side have had dating back to the fall of 2014.
From a qualification standpoint, a pair of draws still keeps them in second place, the same as a win and a loss would, but it's just as precarious a place.
If they take one or zero points from the two matches, the U.S. would need help to qualify for the next round of World Cup qualifying*. They would trail Guatemala and Trinidad and Tobago in their group, and even wins in their final two qualifiers may not be enough for them to advance. The Americans would then almost certainly have to win their last two, then get St. Vincent and the Grenadines to take points off of either Trinidad and Tobago or Guatemala.
Basically, if they draw one and lose one (or *gasp* lose both), their World Cup hopes will hang on St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Woof.
