What's at stake for the USMNT's World Cup qualification hopes against Panama?
Bruce Arena, the coach of the U.S. men's national team, has been hesitant to label his team's current set of games as "must-wins." Yet Friday's match vs. Honduras certainly felt that way. The match in Panama on Tuesday has an air of urgency too.
As Arena put it beforehand: "I don’t think we’re hanging on by a fingernail yet, but we’re getting close."
So, with one win in three games of World Cup qualifying, how important is it that the USMNT gets a result in Panama on Tuesday?
Well, first the bad news: No CONCACAF team has ever lost its first two matches of "the Hex" and still qualified for the World Cup without needing a playoff – and the USMNT lost its first two matches before coach Jurgen Klinsmann was fired. But now the good news: The USMNT has plenty of opportunity to catch up, mathematically speaking, and the win vs. Honduras -- plus wiping out their negative goal differential -- helped a lot.
The USMNT has another 21 points up for grabs over the course of seven games going into Tuesday. Only the top three teams of the six-team group will directly qualify for the World Cup – and in the previous five World Cup cycles, at least 14 points were needed to break into the top three. Sometimes that number was as high as 16 points, though.
But the USMNT has a lifeline beyond that – they can try for the fourth-place spot, which would earn them an intercontinental playoff spot for a World Cup berth. In previous cycles, the fourth-place finish for a playoff spot has required between 11 and 13 points. If that holds true again, the USMNT could conceivably manage to qualify for the World Cup with even just one more win over the next seven games of the Hex if they got a lot of draws. Or, they could win all their remaining home games and lose every road match.
But that playoff match is far from a sure thing and the USMNT is undoubtedly aiming to qualify outright without even thinking about the fourth-place spot, at least at this point. The goal is very much finishing in third place, at a minimum.
As such, getting results on the road is a mathematical requirement for the USMNT now to qualify outright, and if they can get any points in Panama on Tuesday, that will be a good result.
When or where the USMNT earns points on the road doesn't matter, but Panama represents one of the best opportunities the Americans have. Panama is one of the weakest teams in the final round of qualifying and it will be a lot easier for the USMNT to nab points there than in, say, Mexico.
Mathematical necessities aside, the USMNT finally has some momentum in the World Cup qualifying process after their dominant 6-0 win over Honduras. They surely don't want to squander it, and getting at least one point in Panama should give them a confidence boost as they head into the next set of matches in June.
But for as bad as the USMNT's qualification looked after their first two games in November, they are right back in the mix for a top spot now. If the USMNT wins on Tuesday, they will move into third place -- back in an automatic qualifying spot. That's as quick as comeback as the USMNT could've hoped for and no longer do they have a huge hole to climb out of. They're nearly caught up.
There's a lot of uncertainty this early in the process with seven games left to play, but what we do know is that a win will push the USMNT into one of the automatic qualification spots, at least temporarily. If that happens, the Americans will be back on track like their two opening nightmare games in November never happened.
So, beating or drawing Panama on Tuesday is not a requirement, but it presents the USMNT a great opportunity to get crucial road points that are a requirement. And for a team that looked lost and panicked in November, two results in two games under Arena this month would surely give the USMNT a reason to feel good about staying the course now.
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