Will Mexico's gamble on Juan Carlos Osorio pay off or blow up in their faces? It's 50/50
Who is Juan Carlos Osorio? He's definitely the current Mexico manager*, but that's about all we can say about him with certainty. Anything else, well, it depends what continent you are on.
Go to South America and you'll hear nothing but praise for the man. He was named Colombia's best manager with Millonarios in 2006, his first year as a manager. Osorio also won the Colombian first division with Once Caldas, then did it three times with Atletico Nacional, not to mention a pair of Copa Colombia titles and runs to the Copa Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana finals.
There's a reason that when Jose Pekerman's future as Colombia manager was in doubt, Osorio's name was bandied about as his replacement. The man is beloved in his country, and around the rest of the continent.
A trip to North America wouldn't be so kind to Osorio. He had a nice half-season with the Chicago Fire and after a middling first season with the New York Red Bulls led to a shocking run to the MLS Cup final, expectations were high for the man. But then he oversaw the Red Bulls as they challenged the worst single-season record in MLS history. That his return to the continent was a short four-month stint with Puebla, where he won just two of 11 matches, didn't help his standing in North America.
Osorio quickly went from a manager with potential to a laughingstock in North America. And that time with Puebla was the last time he had managed on the continent, so that stink didn't go away.
Now he's Mexico's manager, making a return to North America under intense scrutiny. Not only has his past on the continent been shaky at best, but El Tri have arguably their most talented team ever and expectations are sky high.
Mexico have been good under Osorio so far, winning all five matches since the Colombian took over, but those matches came against El Salvador, Honduras, Senegal and Canada. El Tri are so much more talented than those teams that they might not even need a manager to win.
That won't be the case at Copa America Centenario, where they open the tournament against Uruguay and have the very realistic goal of winning the whole thing. That means besting Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Co. too.
There's no questioning the team's roster. Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez is in the best form of his life, Hector Moreno leads a good defense and the only question in the midfield is which of the handful of excellent players to choose. They can play with anyone at Copa America. The question is Osorio.
This is Osorio's first international job. He doesn't have access to players every day with regular training, like he did as a club manager. There aren't certain matches for him to gear the team up for or a nine-month season to plan for. He has six matches in 22 days, and he's going to need to win a minimum of four. He might need to win five. He can't wait too long to let his teams evolve or let players find their way. They have to be ready to go and he has to put together a tactical plan for as many as six different opponents with a team that doesn't have a ton of time to develop a bunch of ways to play.
Those are the challenges of international management. Some brilliant managers have struggled with it, and some lesser ones have found success with in that world. How Osorio does is a complete tossup, which can be terrifying for a talented team that is dreaming big.
Osorio is an avowed tactical nerd, spending hours upon hours studying it from teams all over the world. He's also gained a reputation as a manager not scared to be blunt with players or the media. It can work, and has worked, but it has also backfired before. It's where you get the two sides of Osorio.
If you asked those in South America, they'd say Osorio's ability to transition to international management shouldn't be much of a concern. After all, he made the Copa Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana finals, not exactly the same as managing a national team, but proof of his ability to handle tournaments. But those in North America aren't going to put their trust in a man who they saw lead the Red Bulls into the ground and lasted all of four months at Puebla.
So is the South American Osorio the real Osorio? Or is it North American Osorio? Or is international Osorio a completely different manager, tossing another side of Osorio into the debate of who he really is?
With this stacked Mexico team set for Copa America Centenario on U.S. soil, where El Tri supporters will pack stadiums unlike any other fan base, now is as good a time as any to find out.
* Current is a very important word to include there because things change quickly with Mexico.
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