World Cup 2022 odds: Belgium's early exit bad news for sportsbooks
Heading into the World Cup, Belgium was No. 2 in FIFA’s world soccer rankings. So there was clearly an expectation that the Belgians would, at the very least, reach the 16-team knockout stage in the 32-team international soccer spectacle on FOX.
What wasn’t expected: Belgium being held to a 0-0 draw by Croatia in Thursday’s final Group F match, ending the Belgian side’s tournament. Prior to the tournament, the Red Devils were among the top quarter of the field on the World Cup odds board, +1600 to win it all at FOX Bet.
But the Belgians ended up being a speedy departer. And to be honest, bookmakers are disappointed to see them go so early.
Sleeper put to sleep
Prior to the tournament draw earlier this year, Belgium was the +1100 seventh choice in BetMGM’s World Cup odds. Just before the tournament began, Belgium remained in that range at +1200.
But Belgium got one win, one loss and one draw for 4 points, finishing third in the group behind upstarts Morocco (seven points) and Croatia (five).
"I was surprised, considering I had Belgium as my sleeper," BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said. "But they never looked like their best or their previous World Cup form. They were honestly lucky to beat Canada in their first match."
That said, BetMGM’s strong preference was to see the Belgians play on into the Round of 16 and beyond.
"They were a good winner for the book on the outright market," Magee said of Belgium winning the tournament.
Croatia vs. Belgium highlights
Group therapy
Pre-tournament, Belgium was strongly favored to reach the knockout stage, at the very least.
The Red Devils were -140 to win their group at FOX Bet entering the World Cup.
"Belgium was -655 Yes to [advance] from the group, +350 No. So we’re definitely a bit surprised," PointsBet USA sports analyst Mike Korn said.
PointsBet had Belgium at +1800 to win the World Cup prior to the tournament. Before Thursday’s draw with Croatia, Belgium had fallen back to +6600, largely due to Sunday’s stunning 2-0 loss to Morocco.
And a not-insignificant number of bettors expected the Belgian side to make a push for the trophy.
"Belgium was eighth in bet count to win the World Cup, so this definitely knocked out some tickets," Korn said.
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Flawed draw
Even after losing to Morocco in Game 2 of Group F play, Belgium still had a fair chance to advance and was modestly favored to do so. For Thursday’s match, Belgium closed as a +140 favorite in three-way betting at FOX Bet, with Croatia +200 and draw +240.
But neither team could find the back of the net – a result that was just fine with Croatia, which needed that one point on the draw to advance. It wasn’t fine, however, for Belgium.
"Belgium had several chances late in the game but ultimately waited too long to press the issue," said Dylan Brossman, FOX Bet senior operations trading manager. "It is certainly an upset for Belgium not to advance and is already being viewed as the potential end of Belgium’s Golden Generation."
Indeed, led by Kevin De Bruyne, that group’s time might be up. In the 2018 World Cup, Belgium gave eventual champion France all it could handle in the semifinals before losing 1-0. In 2014, the Belgians reached the quarterfinals before losing to Argentina 1-0.
Not a surprise to some
Rob Miech, sports betting columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times and an informed/avid soccer bettor, was not as shocked by Belgium’s early exit.
"Personally, it’s not a surprise. They’re always a mess, with infighting, jealousies, etc.," Miech said while also casting doubt on Belgium’s No. 2 world ranking. "Those FIFA rankings are kind of a joke, never to be taken seriously."
After Thursday’s 0-0 draw with Croatia, Belgium coach Roberto Martinez announced he would be leaving the team.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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