World Cup 2022 odds: Bettors, sportsbooks rooting for USMNT to defeat Netherlands
This weekend was already going to be a monster for sports betting, with college football conference championship games and, of course, the NFL. But thanks to the United States Men's National Team (USMNT), the World Cup odds market is sizzling at the moment.
The American side took second in Group B, behind England, and now faces the Netherlands in the Round of 16. Plenty of public/recreational bettors are pulling their patriotic duty, wagering on the USA to advance Saturday while continuing to pile on the United States to win it all in the World Cup futures market.
But the Knockout Stage is a big step up from the Group Stage, as oddsmakers rightly noted.
Still a Long Shot
Even in the wake of a thrilling 1-0 win over Iran to advance, the USMNTs odds to win the World Cup haven't changed much. WynnBet still has the squad at 100-1, which tells you how challenging oddsmakers think Saturday will be for the United States.
"The USA is our biggest liability in the outright market. [But] we will continue to stay high on them," WynnBet senior trader John Manica said of maintaining a long-shot price on the American side. "It is one thing to make it through the group and another to compete with the best squads in the world in a knockout environment. Especially with the apparent losses of [Christian] Pulisic and [Josh] Sargent."
FOX Bet also is currently dealing the USMNT at 100-1 to win it all.
Pulisic scored the body-sacrificing first-half goal for Team USA in the win over Iran, suffering a pelvic contusion that knocked him out of the game. He certainly wants to play in the 10 a.m. ET contest on FOX and news just came in that he has been cleared to play. Sargent has an ankle injury and is day-to-day.
"The Netherlands will be an extremely stern test. The U.S. will not be favored to make it through that game," Manica said.
Dollars on the 'Dog
To Manica's point on the USA-Netherlands match itself, the Dutch are -111 favorites in FOX Bet's three-way betting – the result after 90 minutes plus injury time. Team USA is a +300 underdog and Draw is +200.
At WynnBet, the Netherlands is actually taking the bulk of tickets, at 60%, while the United States is getting just 34% of tickets. However, 64% of money is on the USA, which is no surprise at all at this point.
"The USMNT's group-stage games generated great handle and interest for us," WynnBet junior trader Dom DeBonis said. "With the game against the Dutch on Saturday taking place in an ideal time slot, right before the college football [conference] championship games, we are expecting that trend to continue.
"All of the [USMNT] games have shaped up as big house losses for the U.S. to win outright on the three-way result, as everyone has gotten in the patriotic spirit. Early returns suggest that will not change on Saturday."
Should the two teams play to a tie in 90 minutes plus injury time, Draw is the winner on the three-way bet, regardless of what happens in overtime or – if necessary – on penalty kicks. So if that makes you skittish on betting in the three-way market, you can also wager simply on which team will advance – be it in 90 minutes plus injury time, overtime or on PKs.
In that market, Netherlands is -250 and USA is +200 to move on.
Christian Pulisic cleared to play against Netherlands
Good 'Dog?
If Team USA doesn't advance Saturday, obviously WynnBet and countless other U.S. sportsbook operators clean up on all the USMNT World Cup championship action. And WynnBet wouldn't mind seeing the Dutch go as far as possible.
"In the futures market, the USMNT represents a large loss, and the Dutch would be a sizable house win," DeBonis said.
But if the USMNT falls out, betting interest could wane significantly for the final two weeks of this tournament. So oddsmakers would actually like to see the USA advance past the Netherlands and get at least one more match.
"In my opinion, the farther the USMNT can go, it would still benefit our cause by creating new fans attracted to the sport, who will bet games later in the tournament," DeBonis said.
Furthermore, DeBonis noted it will boost interest in the 2026 World Cup, in which the United States is a co-host with Mexico and Canada.
As for me, well, I definitely want the United States to advance Saturday. But I'm betting on Draw in the three-way market. Gimme a nice little 0-0 or 1-1 tie after 90 minutes plus injury time. Then I can root like hell for the USMNT to find a way through in overtime or on penalty kicks.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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