FIFA Men's World Cup

World Cup 2022 odds: Germany's ouster shocks bettors and sportsbooks

Updated Dec. 1, 2022 7:52 p.m. ET

Thursday’s World Cup results probably had some bookmakers reaching for the Excedrin. First, Belgium bowed out, failing to get out of Group F after a 0-0 draw against Croatia. Then in Group E, an even bigger letdown arrived when Germany failed to advance, despite a 4-2 victory over Costa Rica to wrap up group play.

Multiple sportsbooks wanted to see both Belgium and Germany remain alive in the World Cup odds market but got neither.

Per FOX Sports Research, Germany will miss the knockout stage in consecutive World Cups for the first time in national team history.

Four scores not enough

Germany put itself in a huge hole by taking a 2-1 upset loss against Japan in its first game. From there, it was destined to be a very uphill battle. Against Spain, the German side settled for a 1-1 draw, leaving it with just one point heading into the final group game against Costa Rica.

Germany needed to win and likely put up a ton of goals. Thomas Müller & Co. delivered a 4-2 victory to get three points and finish the group stage with four points. But Spain also had four points and a huge lead in goal differential: Germany’s goal differential was just one, while Spain’s was a whopping six, thanks to an opening 7-0 blowout over Costa Rica.

So Spain moves on, and Germany — which pre-tournament was one of the favorites at FOX Bet in odds to win the World Cup at +1000 — is heading home.

"Germany was a big winner for our futures, so it’s tough to see them out," BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said. "It’s pretty shocking that Germany is out right now. Crazy enough that they haven’t been past the group stage since they won the tournament in 2014."

Fading Germany

Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sports, echoed Magee’s sentiments on Germany.

"We were actually in a good position with Germany in the outright tournament winner and group winner markets for the World Cup," Pullen said. "They seem to have hit some hard times on the international stage lately. We only lost on a few teams for the tournament, but they were not one of them."

That said, Pullen noted that bettors got a modest win over the Caesars trading team in one market — betting against Germany to advance.

"We were a small loser on the to-qualify-from-the-group-stage market. Germany was around 4.5-1 [+450] not to qualify, so there were some juicy odds there," Pullen said.

Not too surprising

Rob Miech, a sports betting columnist and well-versed soccer bettor, wasn’t too surprised to see Germany come up short of the knockout stage.

"Germany has an aging Müller. They sorely miss a Michael Ballack-type who kept them together and on alert in days of yore. Much of the rest of the world is catching up or has caught up to the powers," Miech said.

The Germans bowing out early certainly sends a wake-up call to the remaining World Cup favorites.

"It will alert the French, in particular, to be aware and take no one lightly," Miech said, alluding to the defending World Cup champions.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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