World Cup 2022 odds: How to bet France vs. Poland
The first round of the Round of 16 features a match between reigning World Cup champion France and Poland.
France finished first in Group D with 6 points and a 2-0-1 record, defeating Australia and Denmark and losing to Tunisia.
Poland finished second in Group C with a 1-1-1 record, tying Mexico, defeating Saudi Arabia, and losing to Argentina. Poland scored 4 points.
France comes into the Round of 16 as a heavy favorite.
Here's how to bet the France-Poland match, from the moneyline, draw, Over/Under total odds and expert pick (all odds via FOX Bet).
France's Kylian Mbappé scores goal vs. Denmark in 86'
France vs. Poland (10 a.m. ET Sunday, December 4, FS1 and FOX Sports App)
France: -400 (bet $10 to win $12.50 total)
Poland: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Draw: +380 (bet $10 to win $48 total)
Over/Under Total Odds – 2.5
Over: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Under: -118 (bet $10 to win $18.47 total)
Poland's Piotr Zielinski scores goal vs. Saudi Arabia in 39'
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:
Don’t read too much into France’s loss to Tunisia, as it started the B-team in a 1-0 loss.
France is the side here. The only question is by how much. There’s just not much to get excited about for Poland outside of goalie Wojciech Szczesny, who has been one of the best keepers in the World Cup so far, including stopping a PK by Lionel Messi.
Poland has one of the most dangerous strikers in the world in Robert Lewandowski but not much else. It looked listless in a tie against Mexico and was badly outclassed by Argentina, as they registered a paltry .32 expected goals compared to 3.69 by Argentina. As such, the markets are heavily tilted toward France, and you’ve got to pay a premium to bet them. For example, Kylian Mbappe, who is tied for the World Cup lead in goals with 3, is -118 to be an anytime goalscorer. That’s the biggest juice I’ve seen in the World Cup for any player.
My read here is France gets one and Poland tries very hard to prevent a second before a late push to get the equalizer. France gets a second on a counter.
Out of the group stage, there’s no incentive to play goal differential games.
PICK: France to win and score Under 2.5 goals (+205 at FOX Bet)
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