FIFA Men's World Cup

World Cup 2022: Ranking the qualified teams into tiers

Updated Apr. 1, 2022 4:43 p.m. ET

By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer

With 29 of the 32 World Cup participants having booked their spots for Qatar 2022, how do you separate the contenders from the pretenders?

We have a little better idea following Friday’s draw in Doha, when the eight four-team groups were determined. (The final three World Cup tickets will be decided in June.)

But history, current form and common sense tell us plenty about how nations might fare at the main event. The gap between the best and the rest in international soccer is narrowing every four years. As an example, just look at four-time World Cup winner and current European champion Italy, which will miss their second consecutive trip to the global stage after being stunned by North Macedonia last week.

Then again, while there are always surprises, only eight countries have won it all since the first World Cup in 1930. Could another be added to that list in December?

Let's break all 29 teams into tiers based on their chances.

Tier 1: Title favorites

Belgium: FIFA's top-ranked team for most of the past four years came close in 2018, losing to eventual champion France in the semis. With the most talented squad in the field, there’s no reason the Belgians can’t hoist the trophy this time.

Brazil: The only team to win five World Cups, the Seleção could be due for a sixth after topping South American qualifying.

France: If Les Bleus can avoid the same fate as the past four winners — who all failed to survive the group stage at their next World Cup — they’re capable of adding a third world title.

Germany: Die Mannschaft have four titles for a reason. They’re also extra motivated after their embarrassing group stage elimination four years ago.

Spain: La Roja’s new generation is looking to make a name for itself by emulating the title-winning 2010 side.

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Tier 2: Next up

Argentina: After the Albiceleste won the Copa America last summer, can Lionel Messi add the most coveted title of all in what will surely be his last appearance on the biggest stage?

Croatia: The 2018 runners-up have the quality and experience to make another deep run.

England: Gareth Southgate’s team remains on the come-up after reaching the semis four years ago and finishing second at the European Championship last summer.

Netherlands: The best footballing nation never to win it, the Dutch have reached three finals, the most recent in 2010. They’ve also got something to prove after failing to qualify last time out.

Portugal: Cristiano Ronaldo & Co. needed a playoff victory to secure their spot, but they’re good enough to be considered a title dark horse.

Uruguay: The two-time World Cup champs finished behind only Brazil and Argentina in CONMEBOL’s marathon qualifying tournament.

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Tier 3: Capable of making noise

Canada: The best team in CONCACAF is also one of this World Cup’s best stories. The Reds have the attacking chops, cohesion and grit to make a Cinderella run.

Cameroon: Battle-tested after losing the African Cup of Nations semis on penalties, Cameroon will be a tough out for any foe.

Denmark: The Danes nearly upset England in London to reach the Euro final last July. Now they have a healthy Christian Eriksen back, too.

Ecuador: Depending on the draw, South America’s No. 4 team is good enough to make the second round and maybe even win a game if it does.

Mexico: There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes and El Tri advancing to the knockout stage of the World Cup.

Poland: With the world’s best striker leading the way, Robert Lewandowski’s goals could make the Poles tough to beat.

Senegal: Overlook Sadio Mane’s side at your peril after they won the African Cup of Nations, then topped Mo Salah’s Egypt again to qualify.

Serbia: They won a qualifying group that contained Portugal. Nuff said.

South Korea: Son Heung-min headlines the Taegeuk Warriors’ best team since they reached the semis on home soil 20 years ago.

United States: The USMNT struggled to qualify after missing out in 2018, but they have as much top-end young talent as any team in Qatar.

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Tier 4: Long shots to advance

Ghana: The Black Stars are back after missing out in 2018. But they’re a far cry from their 2010 best, as their poor AFCON performance showed.

Iran: Team Melli has never advanced in six previous tries. Even after going 8-1-1 in Asian qualifying, there’s little reason to think this year will be different.

Japan: The Samurai Blue survived the first round in 2018 but finished second (to Saudi Arabia) in their qualifying group.

Morocco: Back for a second consecutive tournament, Morocco aims to advance for the first time since 1986.

Qatar: In their first World Cup appearance, Qatar will try to avoid becoming just the second host nation not to reach the second round after South Africa in 2010.

Saudi Arabia: Although they beat already eliminated Egypt in the group stage finale in 2018, the Saudis haven’t advanced since 1994.

Switzerland: They reached the round of 16 at the past two tournaments and the quarters at the Euros last summer, but progress isn’t linear. The Swiss are probably due for a letdown.

Tunisia: Eliminated in the group phase in each of their six World Cup trips, Tunisia barely qualified for 2022 after narrowly defeating Mali this month.

One of the most prominent soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams in more than a dozen countries, including multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports, the New York City native was a staff writer for Yahoo Sports and ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.