World Cup qualifying 2022: USMNT battling nerves, history
By Alexi Lalas
FOX Sports Soccer Analyst
You smell that? That’s the unmistakable stench of fear and angst emanating from the United States soccer community.
We’ve been here before, standing precariously at the precipice of qualification for the World Cup. We’re scarred. We’re sensitive. We’re vulnerable. We’ve seen it all slip away so quickly. We have precedent.
The historic failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup still informs and tarnishes everything. So as we start the final and decisive window of qualifying, you can forgive our anxiety.
But the odds are vastly in our favor. The U.S. are three games: away vs. Mexico on Thursday, home vs. Panama on Sunday in Orlando (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1/FOX Deportes/FOX Sports app) and away vs. Costa Rica next Wednesday.
Five points, and the U.S. qualify. Four points, and it’s a 98% chance the U.S. qualify, per USMNT analytics. Three points, and it’s an 86% chance.
First up, Mexico in Azteca Stadium. USA vs. Mexico is the greatest international soccer rivalry in the world.
Having said that, this is the weakest Mexico team I’ve seen in my lifetime, and a downsized and reduced capacity Azteca Stadium is certainly not the Thunderdome it once was. Mexico are ripe for the picking.
The U.S. have been to the well three times against Mexico in the past year and found it full each time. Is this the time the well comes up empty? Maybe. But imagine if Gregg Berhalter were to beat Tata Martino and Mexico four times in one year?! They’d have to build a statue … and put it outside Azteca!
Berhalter will be smart and strategic with this game. Because of players on yellow cards (Tyler Adams, Tim Weah, DeAndre Yedlin, Zack Steffen and Jordan Pefok) and fitness/injury concerns (Giovanni Reyna), Berhalter might field a "less than full strength" team at Mexico. I just hope he doesn't try to get too cute or overthink the situation.
But the talent and depth of this group of U.S. players have often made us question what the "full-strength" team is. I wouldn’t be surprised if the game vs. Mexico has us questioning once again.
Next up, Panama in Orlando on Sunday. This is obviously a must-win game and could very well be the moment the USMNT punch their ticket to Qatar.
If the soccer gods smile upon us, I will be raising my glass (numerous times) Sunday in celebration … and relief.
But in order to do that, whatever Berhalter strategically holds back against Mexico needs to be brought to bear against Panama — especially if the U.S. lose to Mexico. Whatever the changes are, when the roster comes out, there needs to be a collective feeling that the Americans are throwing everything and the kitchen sink at Panama.
From the first whistle, Panama must feel under siege and overpowered. Substance over style — nothing matters but the result. This will be about breaking down a compact and defensive Panama team looking to counter, and set pieces will be crucial if and when Panama can’t be broken down.
Patience is required, but time will give Panama confidence. The longer it takes the U.S. to score, the worse it will become for the Americans.
Finally, Costa Rica in Estadio Nacional. If it comes down to this game, the U.S. have really screwed up … and you will probably find me and others in a dark corner curled up in the fetal position. The ghosts of Couva will be hovering nearby as we look for a result in a country where the Americans have never won a World Cup qualifying game. Godspeed.
Yes, the world has changed since 2017, and so has this team. But many of the same hopes and fears remain.
Right before the failure in 2017, I ranted about the dangers of complacency and the need for players to step up and get the job done. But not this time. This team is different … I think. This team was born from the ashes of that epic failure and is motivated by the hope that, on their watch, things will be different.
A new generation of exciting, ambitious and confident young American players takes the pitch with swagger. This team makes me optimistic about the next three games and beyond.
But this window is where we will find out who they really are and if they are worthy of this optimism. Once again, qualifying is in the palm of our hand, just waiting to be grabbed.
If this team needs motivation, we’ve already failed. Don’t let this chance slip away. Be bold. Be confident. Be ruthless. Take what is yours.
Because we can’t afford to waste it … again.
Alexi Lalas, a member of the National Soccer Hall of Fame and one of the sport’s most recognizable personalities, joined FOX Sports in January 2015 as a lead studio and game analyst. Lalas has contributed to FOX Sports’ coverage of the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, England’s FA Cup, Major League Soccer, USMNT matches, CONCACAF Gold Cups, UEFA European Championship Qualifiers, FIFA Women’s World Cup and Copa America. He also hosts the weekly podcast "Alexi Lalas' State of the Union."
