World Cup Qualifying: Dear USMNT, it's time to start winning
By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist
For United States soccer fans, unpleasant as it might be, it is time to start thinking about the unthinkable.
Missing out on the World Cup — that cruel, unexpected but ultimately deserved fate that befell the U.S. Men’s National Team in the 2018 campaign — is again a genuine possibility that should have been comfortably avoided.
Instead, a chilling ultimatum now looms.
The U.S. began the 14-game qualification journey, from which the CONCACAF region’s top-three teams earn a World Cup place, with some breathing room. Now, after one blip too many, there is none left.
Wednesday’s clash with last-place Honduras (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1 and the FOX Sports app) is important. But in the context of the four-game stretch that will decide the team’s fate, it is the equivalent of writing your name correctly on the examination paper. It is a task that needs to be completed. It is difficult to mess up. To do so would mean all kinds of chaos.
Anything other than a resounding victory vs. Honduras would be disastrous to the U.S. squad’s hopes, but even clinching all three points won't do anything to numb the reality of the gauntlet that lies ahead.
"It’s not time to panic," head coach Gregg Berhalter told reporters. "Other teams have been through this. We've been through it before. We just stick to the process and play hard, compete."
A look at the standings doesn’t tell the full story. Yes, the USMNT sit in second place with 18 points. And yes, even the fourth spot confers a possible second chance, with that finisher going into a playoff against the Oceania region’s winner (probably New Zealand). However, what remains ahead for Berhalter’s group couldn’t be more difficult.
Like the U.S., Mexico are also on 18 points, but they have three home games remaining. Panama sit one point behind and hungrily poised, while even Costa Rica, in fifth position, loom dangerously due to the makeup of their remaining schedule.
Four years ago, five points from the final five qualifying contests condemned the U.S. to watching the World Cup on TV. Something similar this time — such as beating Honduras, drawing with Panama and losing the road trips — would mean a strong possibility of the same outcome.
Winning both home games might not be enough for the U.S., either, depending on other outcomes. A situation in which the team travels to Costa Rica for the last game of the campaign needing to get a result would generate gnawed fingernails throughout the American soccer community.
The rise of Canada, a men’s soccer nonfactor the past four decades, has tightened the CONCACAF field and made things decidedly trickier. Canadian goalkeeper Milan Borjan made no secret of his delight in how Canada’s rise has increased pressure on the U.S.
"They’re scared, the last four or five matches," Borjan said. "They’ve been scared against us."
In the stretch of seven World Cups between 1990 and 2014 — when the U.S. reached soccer’s biggest tournament every time — a natural sense of inevitability crept in. Of course the U.S. team was going to make it, so the thinking went. The reason for that was simple: A whole generation of fans couldn’t remember a time when they hadn’t.
However, those teams of the past don’t get enough credit for their qualifying efforts. Getting to the World Cup isn’t guaranteed. It is not a right. No one is going to roll over for the U.S. — quite the opposite. As the biggest target in the region, along with Mexico, they are a team everyone else raises their game for.
The doomed 2018 campaign should have been enough to dissuade any complacent notions, but apparently not. So how did we get here?
This was supposed to be a bold new era, unburdened by precedent, with a new coach in Berhalter and fresh players, fearless in both technique and mentality. The humiliation four years ago was supposed to have been a much-needed reset.
It seemed that way for a while. There has never been a stronger collection of talent to wear a U.S. jersey, with the pipeline of American players to big European leagues flowing rapidly and Major League Soccer on its strongest footing ever.
Christian Pulisic is a high-profile star with Champions League winners Chelsea, while Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie have proven their worth on club soccer’s biggest stage. No one doubts that if the U.S. do reach the World Cup, they will have a chance to make a splash against some of the world’s most accomplished teams.
But that counts for nothing if they can’t get there. To this point, there have simply been too many mediocre results. There were ties on the road to El Salvador and Jamaica, both of whom are now of the reckoning. An early home draw with Canada didn’t help — and the Canadians have since surged clear at the top of the standings.
A defeat to the same opponent last weekend was frustrating for more than one reason. One, it created this situation, and now tension will fill the remainder of the campaign. Two, it seemed to be a return to the days of sticking the head in the sand and pretending nothing is wrong.
Berhalter's coming out and saying the U.S. were "dominant" in a game they lost 2-0 felt like when Jurgen Klinsmann and Bruce Arena confidently assured listeners that all was well last time around — until, er, oops.
The time for talk is done. So, too, frankly, is the time for moral victories, perceived or otherwise. The U.S. need to start winning their way toward the World Cup — not tiptoeing slowly in its general direction.
The Americans are running out of time, and chances, to do so.
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.
