2023 USFL Week 4 predictions, expert picks by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
If you've been following this space to wager on the USFL season, you know it's been profitable for us from a betting perspective.
I love giving you all my best USFL bets every week, so if you want to throw a few bucks down on the games, I have you covered. Last week we went 3-1, which brings our season tally to 9-4 over the first three weeks.
It's time to focus on the fourth week of action, which you can catch at FOX Sports and on the FOX Sports App.
The story of the young season thus far has been the lone remaining undefeated team in the league, the New Orleans Breakers. They have started the year 3-0 with more points scored than any other team.
Let's jump into my favorite bets for this week's slate and see if we can keep this hot start going.
All times ET
Houston Gamblers (1-2) vs. Philadelphia Stars (0-3) at Detroit, 1 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports App
Philadelphia let one get away last week as the Stars did a great job holding Pittsburgh out of the end zone but did themselves in with three second-half turnovers by Case Cookus.
Houston nearly did the same against Memphis but rallied for a win in the final seconds. I don’t trust the Houston defense at all, as it has allowed 29, 38 and 26 points in three games. However, the Gamblers' offense did put 31 up on New Orleans, and QB Kenji Bahar has been a nice surprise this season.
Yes, the Stars' offense hasn’t been able to run all season — no back has gained more than 31 yards in any game — but this feels like it could be a high-scoring game with Cookus and the offense likely to have a cleaner game than they did last week.
Both teams should get into the 20s here in what feels like a 27-24 type game.
PICK: Over 44.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Memphis Showboats (0-3) at Michigan Panthers (2-1) 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC
Memphis is the lone winless team remaining in the league, and I expect it to remain that way after this weekend’s games.
The Showboats' defense is really struggling, as they have allowed a league-high 99 points this season. Now they face a Michigan team that struggled on offense last week and may be looking at a QB competition with Carson Strong getting time last week in favor of Josh Love vs. New Jersey. Despite the offensive struggles, it was still just an eight-point game heading into the fourth quarter.
This has all the looks of a "get right" spot for Michigan off a disappointing performance last week. With a game against Pittsburgh next week, there's also a great chance that Michigan could be 4-1 when Birmingham visits Ford Field.
I’ll lay the points with the Panthers, as they should be able to put up a good effort against the worst defense in the league.
PICK: Panthers (-6) to win by more than 6 points
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New Orleans Breakers (3-0) vs. New Jersey Generals (2-1) at Canton, Ohio, 3 p.m. Sunday, NBC
This should be excellent viewing as we have the highest-scoring team in the league (New Orleans) against the defense which has allowed the fewest points in the league (New Jersey).
Since an opening week loss to Birmingham, the Generals have beaten Michigan and Pittsburgh by a combined 48-16 and done it with a nice mix of the rushing attack with Darius Victor and the dual threat of De’Andre Johnson at QB, as well as a dominant defense led by Chris Orr.
New Orleans served notice last week that the South Division is not "Birmingham and everyone else" with a 45-31 win over the Stallions in which they averaged 7.3 YPP and racked up 483 total yards. It was a near-perfect performance — and one that might be hard to replicate this week, given the dominance and emotion of the win.
I’m taking the 2.5 with New Jersey here.
PICK: Generals (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Birmingham Stallions (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (1-2) at Canton, Ohio, 6:30 p.m. Sunday, FS1 and FOX Sports App
There’s no way around it…last week was downright ugly for the Stallions in a 45-31 loss. It was a complete turnaround from the previous week when they didn’t allow a single offensive point.
I expect things to get back to normal for Birmingham against an offense that hasn’t been able to produce much, with a league-low 39 points, including five FGs in a 21-13 win over Philadelphia last week. Field goals won't cut it here against a mad Stallions squad, that's for sure.
This should be a relatively straightforward win for Skip Holtz’ team, so I will lay the 7.5. I will also hit the Under 44, as I do not expect the Maulers to put much of a dent in the Birmingham defense.
PICK: Stallions (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points
PICK: Under 44 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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