By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
After a successful opening weekend of wagering on the USFL, I’m back for Week 2!
Week 1 was fun to watch and featured a whole slate of competitive games, with the first two coming down to the final play.
Like everything else in life, a new league takes time. It will take the coaches time to sharpen up their playbooks and see what they have on their roster. It will take the players time to learn their playbooks and form chemistry and cohesion with their new teammates. And when it comes to gamblers, it will take us some time to dig into the statistics and formulate our thoughts from what we see on the field — the eye test.
With all that being said, I'm ready to throw a couple of dollars down on this week's games. Let's dive into my best bets, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
Pittsburgh Maulers (0-1) vs. Philadelphia Stars (0-1), 12 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX
I know it was just one week of action, but I’m auto fading the Pittsburgh Maulers.
The Maulers conservative game plan last weekend was frankly unacceptable. They ran the ball from under center on 3rd and eight and 3rd and five, leading to punts. As a whole, Pittsburgh averaged 3 yards per play, hurt itself with penalties, went 0 for 3 in the red zone and rushed for 2.8 yards per attempt. The Maulers even won the turnover battle 2-0 against the Bandits but only managed three points — the only team that failed to score double-digits.
The Stars didn’t fare much better on offense in Week 1, but they attempted to have a functional unit. We should see more improvement from Philadelphia's passing game with another week of practice.
I’ll take the Stars to cover this game.
PICK: Stars (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points
Birmingham Stallions (1-0) vs. Houston Gamblers (1-0), 7 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1
Both Birmingham and Houston ended Week 1 with a win, but the two teams went about it differently. Houston was outgained by nearly 200 yards, had only 74 yards passing and was only one for three in the red zone. The Gamblers did force three Panthers turnovers, leading to a 17-12 victory.
The Stallions, on the other hand, had a come-from-behind win against the Generals, scoring late in the game to win 28-24. Birmingham was efficient on offense despite only having the ball for 22 minutes, moving the ball for 5.1 yards per play. The Stallions threw for 202 yards, one of the better passing performances of opening weekend.
I was impressed by the team's heart in their comeback and by QB J’Mar Smith's moxie. I’ll ride with them this weekend.
PICK: Stallions (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points
All the unders
The totals opened far lower this weekend than last and have already been bet down in some cases. Guess what? I’m not scared, and I’m hitting them again.
Unders went 3-1 in the opening weekend, with two games not even reaching 30 points. I know it is a different league, but just for reference, unders went nearly 75% in the AAF until about Week 6. As I said in the introduction, things takes time.
Bet all the totals now before the lines dip even lower.
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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