USFL odds: Bookmaker reveals how they're updating lines at the midway mark
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Five football games are far from a large sample size for USFL oddsmakers, but it becomes immensely easier to accurately power rate all eight teams in the league with each passing week.
The Birmingham Stallions and New Jersey Generals have greatly exceeded preseason expectations thus far, while the Houston Gamblers and Michigan Panthers have done the exact opposite.
Heading into Week 1, the Panthers were the title favorite at most American sportsbooks — FOX Bet was dealing Michigan +333 — yet they've proven to be a whole lot worse than anybody expected with a 1-4 record.
The Panthers are now +2200 to win the USFL championship at FOX Bet, and they're a 6.5-point underdog this weekend against the Birmingham Stallions. How the mighty have fallen.
It makes you wonder if Jeff Fisher or a lack of execution is more to blame.
"Who can truly say?" FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me over the phone. "The common theme across the entire USFL has been the lack of production through the air, and Michigan has exemplified that [with a league-worst 143.8 passing yards per game]. There are only two successful passing teams, New Orleans and Philadelphia."
New Orleans continues to be a very enigmatic team for oddsmakers. When the Breakers are firing on all cylinders, they're extremely tough to beat. Look no further than the 34-3 shellacking of the Tampa Bay Bandits back in Week 2.
But turnovers have hindered the Breakers in two of their last three games. They gave the ball away three times in a loss to Birmingham and two more during last weekend's loss to New Jersey.
It's wild to see a team with a +25 point differential shoot itself in the foot over and over and over again. In some weird way, turnovers might be tougher to overcome in the USFL.
"It makes sense," JBB said. "We're seeing such struggles on offense that it's logically tougher to come back from deficits without the firepower. In such a low-scoring game, you've got so few offensive drives that amount to points. A bad turnover that gives the opposition great field position could be more dangerous in this league.
"To be fair, though, New Orleans throws the ball almost 40 times a game, and no other team is coming close to that. Perhaps they need to be a bit more conservative until Kyle Sloter [7 TDs and 7 INTs] gets in a better rhythm. The other way to look at it is that New Orleans hasn't scratched the surface of its potential. The passing game takes longer to perfect than the running game.
"That could be a team that really comes into its own down the stretch."
Speaking of rhythm, JBB and his trading mates are much more locked in when it comes to making totals for USFL games. Remember, the Week 1 totals opened in the low 50s, and most totals for this coming weekend are lined in the high 30s.
It's proof that making numbers for a brand-new league is difficult, but sportsbooks tend to figure it out pretty quickly. Adjustments are more than half the battle in this racket, and the people behind the counter tend to get to the right number.
"You would expect that as time goes on, and we get to the back end of the season, these offenses start to come together a little bit more," JBB said. "I would like to think that the totals slowly tick back up over the [O/U] 40 mark. However, we will have to see it before we believe it because some of these offenses have really struggled.
"That said, there's definitely a lot more confidence in our lines as they go up. We've seen some big moves from when the league first started to where we are now in terms of power ratings. You don't really get a full grasp until you start seeing teams play common opponents."
"We're finally at a place where the game lines feel tight, and the futures feel right, too."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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