USFL odds Week 4: Three best bets to make now
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
Week 4 of the USFL is here! Four games over three days, and I can't wait to watch and wager on the action.
One of the neat things about the league is that we get to watch some exciting ball by a handful of teams jam-packed into 10 fun regular-season weeks. After this weekend's games, we're almost halfway through the regular season.
So you know what that means. These eight squads really need to leave it all on the field every play because while the days are long, this season is short.
With that in mind, here are my favorite wagers for Week 4 in the USFL, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
Houston Gamblers (1-2) vs. New Orleans Breakers (2-1), 3 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC/Peacock
I like the Breakers to win their third game of the season by at least a touchdown against the Gamblers this weekend.
New Orleans is a well-rounded team. The Breakers come into this game ranked second in defensive expected points added (EPA) and second in offensive EPA. They've only allowed 42 points which is second-best in the USFL. They've achieved this while scoring 70 points, which puts them near the league's top.
The Breakers' quarterback Kyle Sloter leads the league with 657 passing yards while competing 60.2% of his pass attempts (league-best). They are also plus-two in turnovers, forcing six turnovers to four giveaways. Lastly, they lead the league in sacks with 11. As I said, a well-rounded team
Houston ranks fourth in the league in offensive success rate, which explains their ability to score, averaging a second-best in the league, 23.6 points per game. However, they are dead last in the league on third downs, only converting 23.3% of those opportunities.
I don't see them putting up points against a Breakers team allowing just 14 points per game. Look for the Gamblers to struggle defensively. Their D ranks seventh in EPA which is next to last in the league. They've allowed the most points this season, and they are facing a team that can put up points.
Football is all about matchups, and this is a bad one for the Gamblers. I'll take the Breakers to cover the 4.5.
PICK: Breakers (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points
New Jersey Generals (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (0-3), 2:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Peacock
Yes, this number is enormous, but the Generals are still the right side here. This wager is more a fade wager on the Maulers, as they come into this game 0-3 straight up and against the spread.
The Maulers rank last in offensive success rate. The team has scored only 26 points over three games, including a defensive touchdown! The Maulers rank third in defensive EPA, but they are playing a Generals team with the best offense in the USFL.
This game could be a double-digit win for the Generals without them having to score over 20 points.
PICK: Generals (-9 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 9 points
Tampa Bay Bandits (2-1) vs. Birmingham Stallions (3-0), 7 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX
For my last pick, I've got a USFL Parlay! Take the Breakers, Generals and Stallions all to win.
As you can see above, I like the Breakers and Generals to win and cover, which I think both teams will do with ease. Now comes the addition of a Stallions' victory to finish the third leg of the parlay.
This season, the Stallions are 3-0, and more importantly, they have covered all three games. The team features a high-powered offense that has scored 83 points in their first three contests. Their offense ranks third in EPA and fourth on third downs.
They excel in ball management, and they lead the league in turnover margin at plus three. The Bandits, Birmingham's opponent on Saturday, rank last in the league in that category with a minus-six turnover margin. The Bandits also rank fifth on offense and sixth on defense, lower than the Stallions in both.
The hometown squad is better than Tampa, and I expect them to continue their hot start.
Geoff's Parlay
Breakers moneyline
Generals moneyline
Stallions moneyline
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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