USFL odds Week 5: Best bets, favorites poised for mid-season sweep
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
Week 5 of the inaugural USFL season is already here! After a full month of action, teams are really starting to separate, which is why I like the favorites to sweep the board this weekend.
Speaking of separation, the undefeated Stallions keep leading the pack. We saw Alex McGough in at quarterback for them last week instead of J'Mar Smith, and they still got the 16-10 win. No other team has been as solid from top to bottom as Birmingham has been this season.
But back to this weekend's games. As mentioned above, I have faith in the favorites to bring out the broom and make a clean sweep in wins and in covers.
Let's dive into why I've got a good feeling about those teams, with all odds via FOX Bet.
Birmingham Stallions (4-0) vs. Philadelphia Stars (2-2), 12 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Stallions are the pride of the USFL as they boast the only undefeated record at a perfect 4-0. More importantly, they are 4-0 against the spread which means I will ride with them against the Stars this weekend. I do have some trepidation as the books have adjusted the number to reflect the Stallions' success, but I’m still fading the Stars' defense in this game.
Birmingham is 4-0 because they are a well-rounded team. According to Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus, the Stallions rank third in the USFL in offensive expected points added (EPA) and they lead the league in total points. On the other side of the ball, Skip Holtz's squad ranks fifth on defense in EPA, and they lead the league in sacks. Basically, the Stallions do the little things well. They are plus 3 in turnover margin with only four giveaways in their four games, and they've committed the third least penalties in the league.
What about Philadelphia? Well, the team is 2-2 on the back of its offense which has scored the third-most points in the league. The Stars are just behind the Stallions in offensive efficiency, ranked fourth. But where the Stars fall far behind is on defense.
Their D ranks dead last in defensive EPA, and is also tied for the league-worst points per game at 23.75. The Stars allow a whopping 202.5 yards per contest on the ground which is over 50 more than the next-worst team's rush defense.
It's true that the Stallions are not a run-heavy team, but they do average more than four yards a carry. Birmingham is a team that should be able to score at will and that's why I’ll take them to cover this game.
It's also worth noting that teams favored by five points or more are 3-1 against the spread in this young USFL season.
PICK: Stallions (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6 points
Pittsburgh Maulers (0-4) vs. Houston Gamblers (1-3), 4 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Caution, folks. I expect this to be a low-scoring affair. The Maulers are 0-4 and have scored a meager 39 points this season while allowing 92. Yikes. They are also 1-4 on field goal attempts this season. I can’t even claim Pittsburgh does anything well.
The Houston Gamblers, on the other hand … well, aren't much better at 1-3, but the team does have some things going for them.
The Gamblers are third in defensive EPA, and they lead the league with 11 takeaways. Their running back Mark Thompson is averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt and the Gamblers' quarterback leads the league in passing touchdowns. However, the Gamblers are an embarrassing 23.3% on third downs, just worse than the Maulers at 28.6%.
I think the Gamblers notch their second win with a 20-10 victory over the Maulers. And I also expect the under to hit.
PICK: Gamblers (-5.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5.5 points
PICK: Under 33.5 points scored by both teams combined
New Orleans Breakers (3-1) vs. New Jersey Generals (3-1), 3 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX
The New Jersey Generals are a surprising offensive leader in the league. The team is first in offensive EPA and that's while using a dual quarterback system led by "back-up" quarterback De’Andre Johnson. DJ has as many pass attempts as the starter Luis Perez, but Johnson has 230 rushing yards, and he's averaging 5.2 yards per attempt.
The Generals' defense has allowed 63 points which is roughly the middle of the pack in the league. However, their defensive EPA ranks 7th — which is next to last — and that will be the difference in this game.
The Breakers are second in the league in offensive EPA and second in points scored, spreading 93 points over the four games. New Orleans is led by quarterback Kyle Sloter who has nearly 1,100 yards passing, which is 400 more than the league's next starting QB. The Generals are going to struggle to stop this potent Breakers' passing attack.
New Orleans specializes in stopping the run. The team allows only 88 yards rushing per game, and their 11 sacks are tied for best in the USFL. Yeah, these teams have the same records, but the Breakers are the better squad, so I'm taking them to win by more than a field goal.
PICK: Breakers (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points
Michigan Panthers (1-3) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (2-2), 8 p.m. ET Friday, USA
Just fade Jeff Fisher. That's a profitable gambling strategy.
His Panthers team is 1-3 straight up and 1-3 against the spread so far this season. They finally got their first cover of the season last weekend in a one-point loss to the Stars last Friday night. But Fisher can't be trusted to win or to cover. He is now 2-9-2 ATS and 2-11 SU in his last 13 games as a professional football coach going back to his time with the Rams.
Tampa Bay is just 2-2 straight up this season, so the Bandits are definitely not the best team in the league. However, they might look like it against the Panthers this weekend.
Let's keep this fade train going.
PICK: Bandits (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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