USFL odds Week 6: Best bets, take the Birmingham Stallions to keep rolling
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
USFL Week 6 is here, and I know you all agree with me when I say this season has sped by. I remember being so hyped up about the Draft, and now, we are more than halfway through the year. Time flies when you're having football.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Week 5 showed us yet again that Birmingham is for real. Seriously, I can't say enough about how solid of a team the Stallions are from top to bottom. Week 5 also proved that I was right about fading coach Jeff Fisher and the Panthers.
But I'll get off my soapbox and get into this weekend's matchups. Let's check out my best bets for Week 6, with all odds via FOX Bet.
Michigan Panthers (1-4) vs. Birmingham Stallions (5-0), 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC
I’m going with chalk and trends in this matchup. The Birmingham Stallions are 5-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) and they have the best scoring team in the USFL. This is a team that has scored 19 points more than the next best team for an average of nearly 26 points per game.
Birmingham is second in offensive efficiency while also being third in defensive expected points added. The Stallions also lead the league in sacks and are second in forced turnovers. Overall, this squad is a well-rounded team that continues to play well each weekend.
The Michigan Panthers, on the other hand, are 1-4. Surprisingly, they do have an outstanding defense that is first in the league in efficiency, but their offense is average, at best. They cannot move the ball through the air. As a matter of fact, the Panthers have the worst passing yardage per game with only 143.6 yards per. Michigan does rush the ball fairly well while the Stallions are just OK at stopping the run.
Remember I told you last week that fading Panthers' coach Jeff Fisher has been the optimal move. Fisher is now 1-4 against the spread this season, and dating back to his time in the NFL, he’s 2-10-2 ATS and 2-12 SU in his last 14 games as a professional football coach.
I like the Stallions to win by at least a touchdown.
PICK: Stallions (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points
Pittsburgh Maulers (1-4) vs. New Orleans Breakers (3-2), 12 p.m. ET Sunday, FS1
The Maulers finally got their first win of the season last weekend on a touchdown pass as time expired against the Houston Gamblers. I do not expect their joy from that game to carry over to this weekend against a New Orleans Breakers squad that's much better than the opponent Pittsburgh faced last week.
The Breakers have the second most points in the USFL. They also rank third in offensive expected points added and have the second-best third down offense in the league. Their quarterback Kyle Sloter leads the league in passing. He has thrown for nearly 400 yards more than any other quarterback.
The Maulers have allowed the second most points in the league and rank sixth out of eight defenses in efficiency. They don’t fare much better on offense as they average a league-low 12 points per game. The Breakers have the second-best defense in the league and I find it hard to believe the Maulers move the ball much in this game.
Worth noting that teams favored by more than five points this season are 4-2 against the spread and teams that have scored 10 points or fewer are unsurprisingly 0-4 against the spread. The Maulers have gone under 10 points twice, both against defenses in the top half of the league.
I’ll take the Breakers cover, despite the giant number.
PICK: Breakers (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points
Houston Gamblers (1-4) vs. New Jersey Generals (4-1), 4 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The over has hit in three of the five New Jersey games this season. The Generals rank first in offensive expected points added but seventh in defensive efficiency. And while the Houston Gamblers rank last in offensive efficiency, they have scored the third most points in the league while allowing the second most points.
The eye test and stats point towards a lot of points being scored in this game.
I’ll root for scoring here, so give me the over!
PICK: Over 37.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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