USFL odds Week 7: Best bets, no one can stop Birmingham Stallions
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
Follow the trends for the money. That's exactly the kind of weekend it will be in the USFL.
We’ve made money following the Stallions, fading the Panthers and taking some overs, so I’m heading back down that winning path for this weekend.
We all know that in betting, the name of the game is taking risks. Well, I'm pretty much going with what has given me bang for my buck this USFL season, which is sticking with the trends and using common sense. Hopefully, that reduces the overall risk in our wagers this week.
How does the saying go? Keep dancing with the ones that got you where you are. Right?
On that note, let's dive into my best bets for Week 7 of the USFL, with all odds via FOX Bet.
Birmingham Stallions (6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (1-5), 2 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Repeat after me. Wager on the Stallions no matter what. Wager on the Stallions no matter what. Wager …
You get the picture.
The Stallions are 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread. They are a wagon rolling down the road without anything in their way.
The Stallions rank second in the league in offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA). They are plus-five in turnover margin which is good for second in the league. Birmingham also ranks first in sacks and third in the most crucial situation for sustained success — third-down offense.
On the other side is the 1-5 Pittsburgh Maulers — a team that ranks dead last in the league in offensive production and efficiency. They’ve only scored 76 points in six games and are last in the league in yards per pass attempt as well. They also rank last in yards per rush. Not great, Bob.
The Maulers are slightly better on defense, ranking fifth out of the eight-team league in defensive EPA. They rank middle of the pack in yardage and points allowed. However, they continue to lose and have lost three games by double digits. Look for that trend to continue this weekend.
This one will be ugly. Give me the Stallions.
PICK: Stallions (-12.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 12.5 points
New Orleans Breakers (4-2) vs. Michigan Panthers (1-5), 9 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1
Please repeat after me. Fade Panthers head coach Jeff Fisher. Fade Panthers head coach Jeff Fisher.
Really, it's that simple.
Fisher’s Panthers team is 1-5 against the spread this season. And going back to his final weeks as the coach of the Rams, Fish's record is 2-11-2 against the spread.
His team is terrible on offense; they check in at seventh in EPA. They also lead the league in giveaways. It's honestly really hard to find anything positive to say about this team's offense.
They are slightly better on defense, as they allow just 17.5 points per game. They also rank third in expected points added.
On the flip side, the Breakers are first in the league in defensive efficiency and allow only 16.85 points per game, which is the best in the USFL. Translation: The Panthers' seventh-ranked scoring offense won’t put up too many points in this game.
The Breakers are third in the league on offense, boast the league's best passing offense, and they have the best third-down offense.
So to recap: The Panthers are bad on offense and a little better on defense. This is not a good recipe to cook up a win against this well-rounded Breakers team.
Here's another gambling nugget for you. Teams favored by five or more points are 6-3 against the spread through the first six weeks of this season.
Simply put, the Breakers win big!
PICK: Breakers (-5.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5.5 points
New Jersey Generals (5-1) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (3-3), 12 p.m. ET Saturday, USA
After a weekend where every game went over, the oddsmakers have raised all the totals this weekend. While Unders should make an appearance again in Week 7, I don't see it happening in this game.
The Generals continue to lead the league in offensive efficiency, while Tampa Bay ranks fifth. The Generals do not allow many points. However, their seventh-ranked defensive efficiency is poor.
I will say it's a mystery why the Generals don't allow more points. They have forced only five turnovers and have a league-low five sacks. The team doesn't allow a ton of yards either, so it’s hard to explain why the efficiency numbers differ from the raw stats. Either way, the Over has also hit in four of their six games, so I'm going to wager on that trend to continue.
The Bandits are just slightly better on defense; their EPA ranks near the bottom, at sixth. Unlike the Generals' raw numbers, the Bandits allow points and yards like their efficiency ranking indicates. They are sixth in defensive points per game, have only forced three turnovers and have seven sacks. These are not good metrics against this New Jersey offensive attack.
I see both these teams scoring in bunches, so I like the Over.
PICK: Over 42.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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