2023 Women's National Title Game lines: Iowa vs. LSU odds, expert picks, Caitlin Clark
It’s all come down to this.
After the most watched set of Final Four games in recent history, the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament comes to an end on Sunday afternoon as superstar Caitlin Clark tries to lead the Iowa Hawkeyes to a historic national title over Kim Mulkey and Angel Reese’s LSU Tigers.
Let's jump into the big game from a betting perspective. Here's everything you need to know about the title matchup on Sunday, from the point spread, moneyline and total Over/Under (with all odds via FOX Bet).
And here are a few plays to think about when it comes to this year’s national championship game in Dallas:
[RELATED: Women's Final Four highlights]
SUNDAY'S TITLE GAME
At Dallas
No. 3 LSU (33-2) vs. No. 2 Iowa (31-6), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+
Point spread: Iowa -3.5 (Iowa favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise LSU covers)
Moneyline: Iowa -175 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $15.71 total); LSU +125 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 159.5 points scored by both teams combined
PICK: Clark over 28.5 points, over 8.5 assists
Mulkey had a simple retort on how to guard Clark when asked about it on Friday night after LSU’s victory over Virginia Tech: pray. How that manifests into a defensive strategy remains to be seen, but appealing to a higher power isn’t a bad plan considering how well the Hawkeyes guard has been shooting this season. She has had fewer than 28 points just four times since March began and easily could have topped that number had games not been Iowa blowouts.
The junior will face a much more physical defense on the perimeter and far more double-teams than she did in the upset of South Carolina. She should still easily be able to clear 28.5 points and 8.5 assists – perhaps even by the time the fourth quarter starts.
PICK: Under 160 points
No matter how you slice it, 160 is a massive number, especially against an LSU side allowing just 57.2 points per game. Sure, the number is a bit inflated, considering Clark has the hot hand after back-to-back 41-point games, but I’d be much more concerned about her teammates needing to step up and knock down shots to get into the 80s to make this total feasible.
The Tigers will be able to get plenty of easy baskets in the paint behind Reese, who is averaging 23.3 ppg on her own, but still aren’t quite as good a team from beyond the arc to think the Over will be in play.
PICK: LSU moneyline +130
Without a doubt, Clark has thrived in big moments and built an incredible following for how she doesn’t hesitate to shoot if given just a little bit of daylight. While it certainly is tough to bet against somebody who is essentially the Michael Jordan or Steph Curry of women’s basketball right now, LSU has all the makings of a team capable of cutting down the nets in Dallas. They have a star in their own right in Reese, a prolific guard in Alexis Morris and a power forward who is nearly unguardable in LaDazhia Williams.
The real x-factor for the underdog is Mulkey, however. She knows this stage well, having won national titles as a player, assistant and head coach, plus has decades of experience when it comes to figuring out the right strategy to attack opponents' weaknesses and take away their strengths. LSU’s fearless leader is not for everybody with her personality, but she is still the best coach in the game for a reason and should have something special for this one to help pull off the upset.
Small note, but if you read this space, you know I gave out LSU +600 before the Final Four. If you are sitting on that ticket, your bet on the game might look a little different in case you are looking to hedge.
Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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