Women's NCAA Basketball Tournament Preview: Fear the Turtle
By Monica McNutt
Special to FOX Sports
The NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament tips off Sunday, and a deep field of contenders will descend upon San Antonio.
In a season marked by parity, with no truly dominant team, the race to cut down the nets should be wide-open.
Let's break down the bracket and what we can expect over the next three weeks.
Which region is the most difficult?
The toughest region is the River Walk, with No. 1 seed UConn and Baylor at No. 2. While I think Maryland is the toughest No. 2 seed in the tournament, the Baylor matchup would present a real challenge for the Huskies.
Baylor has great size and athleticism, especially on defense. DiDi Richards is a former defensive player of the year, and she's going to make Paige Bueckers work. NaLyssa Smith is a tremendous all-around player and one of the best athletes in the game.
Seventh-seeded Virginia Tech is also a sneaky-dangerous team. Aisha Sheppard is one of the best 3-point shooters in the country, and Liz Kitley can easily get you a double-double inside.
This region also has No. 8 Syracuse, with 6-foot-7 freshman Kamilla Cardoso. The Orange are led by an outstanding point guard in Tiana Mangakahia, who is returning to form. Mangakahia was putting up Sabrina Ionescu-type numbers prior to sitting out last season while she battled breast cancer.
No. 3 seed Tennessee, which had a tremendous season under Kellie Harper, also looms in this bracket. The Lady Vols are getting terrific guard play from Rennia Davis – and remember, they almost knocked off UConn in the regular season. They're playing even better basketball since that 67-61 loss in Knoxville.
Which No. 1 seed has the easiest path to the Final Four?
Stanford has the smoothest path in the Alamo Region – and that's OK because the Cardinal are the No. 1 overall seed.
Should it meet No. 2 seed Louisville, Stanford would have the advantage with its size and guard play. The trickiest potential matchup for the Cardinal would be No. 4 seed Arkansas, led by Chelsea Dungee. The Razorbacks put up a lot of points, shoot a ton of 3s and get to the free-throw line. Remember: Mike Neighbors' team handed UConn its only loss of the season.
Which first-round games intrigue you the most?
No. 3 Tennessee vs No. 14 Middle Tennessee State (2 p.m. ET Sunday, ABC): I expect the Lady Vols to get the victory here, but MTSU's Anastasia Hayes is one of the best scorers in the country, and she transferred from Tennessee. Can she get hot enough to create some mayhem?
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 Belmont (4 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN2): The Zags won the West Coast Conference tournament on a dramatic last-second shot by Jill Townsend. The Bruins have won five of the past six conference titles in the Ohio Valley Conference and are a staple of mid-major success in the women's game.
No. 8 Oregon State vs. No. 9 Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET Sunday, ESPN2): I think this is going to be a really good ballgame. These two teams started to find their rhythm down the stretch of the season. Bianca Jackson is a well-rounded guard for the Seminoles, and they play great team defense under interim head coach Brooke Wyckoff. Oregon State fell out of the Top 25 earlier this season, but the Beavers have won five of their past six, including a victory over a very good UCLA team.
No. 8 Oklahoma State vs. No. 9 Wake Forest (1 p.m. ET Sunday, ESPN2): Oklahoma State boasts the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in Natasha Mack. She's a sure-fire pro and could be a WNBA lottery pick. Then you've got the great story of Jen Hoover leading the Demon Deacons back to the NCAA tourney for the first time since she was a player there 33 years ago. I can't wait to see the contrasting styles in this matchup.
How much do you think Geno Auriemma’s absence from the first two rounds will impact UConn? How will a very young Huskies team respond on the big stage?
While we wish Geno a complete and swift recovery, his absence shouldn't be a big deal at all for the Huskies. Chris Dailey is the secret ingredient to UConn's success, and she has Jamelle Elliott, a former head coach, rolling with her. I certainly hope assistant coach Shea Ralph gets back on the bench soon, too, but I'm really not worried for UConn in this first week.
Now, if the Huskies run into Syracuse in a second-round matchup Tuesday, it could be interesting. Coach Quentin Hillsman has slayed a giant or two before, but Syracuse would have to play out of its mind to pull the upset.
Which individual players are must-see in March and capable of carrying their teams?
There is so much talent on display in this tournament. All of these stars have the potential to lift their squads over the next three weeks: Stanford's Haley Jones, Louisville's Dana Evans, Maryland's Ashley Owusu and Katie Benzan, Baylor's NaLyssa Smith, South Carolina's Aliyah Boston and Zia Cooke, Texas A&M's N'dea Jones, Arkansas' Chelsea Dungee, Virginia Tech's Aisha Sheppard, NC State's Elissa Cunane and Jakia Brown-Turner, UConn's Paige Bueckers, Iowa's Caitlin Clark, Iowa State's Ashley Joens and Rutgers' Arella Guirantes and Diamond Johnson.
Four teams have held the No. 1 ranking this season. How many squads do you think are true contenders to win the NCAA championship?
I've got 10 contenders for the title in what should be a wide-open tournament. All of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are capable of cutting down the nets, plus fourth-seeded Arkansas and third-seeded UCLA.
A lot of attention was focused this week on the disparity between the facilities for the men’s and women’s tournaments. Were you surprised to see those stark differences in 2021? How should the NCAA respond?
The NCAA should be lambasted for the resources they provide the women, period, end of the sentence. Comparing the resources to the men's has only exacerbated the issue, but the facilities are unacceptable even without the comparison.
The NCAA asked players, coaches and schools to trust they would provide what was necessary in the San Antonio bubble. I have a hard time fathoming that programs wouldn't have found a way to make the necessary arrangements for their teams if they'd known how badly the NCAA would drop the ball.
These are elite, fine-tuned athletes who put their trust in the system and were terribly let down. I was surprised, saddened and angered by the stark differences.
Coming off 2020, which prompted many conversations about equality and togetherness, the NCAA should have done much better in its demonstration of those values.
Who are your four picks for the Final Four? Who wins the title?
I'm picking Stanford, Maryland, NC State and Baylor.
In the final, I'm taking Maryland over Baylor. The Terps are the highest-scoring team in the country. They can score inside and out, but they're tremendous from deep, and I'm biased toward great 3-point shooting.
Monica McNutt, who played at Georgetown from 2007 to 2011, is a women's college basketball analyst for FOX Sports and the ACC Network.
