Milwaukee Brewers

StaTuesday: Brewers predictions for 2019

Published Mar. 26, 2019 2:13 p.m. ET

A year after their wild run to a division title and the NLCS, the Milwaukee Brewers are drawing mixed reviews from the experts.

With opening day just around the corner, baseball writers and experts are posting picks, predictions and projections for the coming season.

Over at ESPN, the network's baseball minds are predicting a wild race in the NL Central.

Of the 31 experts polled, 12 picked the Chicago Cubs to win the division, 10 picked the Brewers and nine picked the St. Louis Cardinals.

Senior writer David Schoenfield:

"With a healthy Kris Bryant and better production from Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber, the Cubs will have an elite offense. A healthy Yu Darvish will help stabilize the rotation, and the bullpen is deeper than everyone gives them credit for."

Baseball Prospectus' standings projections aren't quite as kind to the Cubs.

The Brewers are projected to win the division at 88-74, while the Cubs are projected to finish in last at 79-83.

CBS Sports' five-person panel of Matt Snyder, Dayn Perry, Mike Axisa, R.J. Anderson and Katherine Acquavella was split on the Cubs and Cardinals to win the division, but all five picked the Brewers to finish third.

Snyder: "In looking at how things shook out, I'm guessing the most complaints would come from Braves and Brewers fans. I can only speak for myself, but it was more a reflection of tough competition than trying to say the teams are much worse. I like the Brewers for mid-to-high 80s in wins and that'll only be enough to finish third."

MLB.com's Will Leitch has a bold prediction for every team, and is expecting another big season for Brewers outfielder Lorenzo Cain.

"Lorenzo Cain will be the better NL MVP Award candidate than Christian Yelich. Before Yelich went nuts the last few months of 2018, Cain was neck-and-neck with him. Cain’s defense was huge last year and could be even more so this year."

This isn't especially surprising.

Cain was in the NL MVP conversation for much of 2018, ultimately finishing in seventh, while earning one third-place vote, thanks largely to his stellar play in center field.

Back to Baseball Prospectus: Their Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA, more on that here) tool projects some steps back for Milwaukee.

Newcomer Yasmani Grandal should be a solid addition behind the plate, while Brandon Woodruff is projected to be the Brewers' most effective starter with a 3.76 ERA and a 9.3 K/9.

BREWERS -- HITTERS

PLAYER	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
Jesus Aguilar	561	69	26	2	25	81	51	140	.254	.330	.461
Orlando Arcia	435	47	17	2	9	42	30	90	.241	.298	.363
Ryan Braun	466	59	21	2	17	59	40	87	.257	.327	.435
Lorenzo Cain	639	86	29	3	13	60	62	109	.277	.356	.407
Ben Gamel	266	29	12	2	5	26	24	57	.247	.321	.374
Yasmani Grandal	481	57	21	1	20	65	53	121	.235	.323	.429
Mike Moustakas	592	75	31	2	27	89	44	91	.271	.332	.487
Hernan Perez	394	46	18	2	11	45	21	77	.262	.304	.413
Manny Pina	355	38	17	2	8	38	27	72	.255	.322	.396
Travis Shaw	561	71	28	2	24	79	57	119	.257	.338	.463
Eric Thames	230	32	11	1	10	29	24	74	.234	.322	.445
Christian Yelich	662	97	29	4	25	81	67	140	.272	.354	.463

BREWERS -- STARTING PITCHERS

PLAYER	IP	H	HR	BB/9	K/9	K	WHIP	ERA
Jhoulys Chacin	171	143	20	3.4	8.4	160	1.21	4.11
Freddy Peralta	79 2/3	59	10	4.3	11.7	103	1.22	3.79
Brandon Woodruff	138 2/3	115	16	3.2	9.3	142	1.19	3.76
Corbin Burnes	77 2/3	63	9	3.9	9.4	81	1.24	3.99
Zach Davies	119 2/3	112	13	2.8	7.8	104	1.24	3.88

BREWERS -- RELIEF PITCHERS

PLAYER	IP	H	HR	BB/9	K/9	K	WHIP	ERA
Chase Anderson	142 2/3	123	21	3.0	8.4	133	1.20	4.31
Alex Claudio	50 2/3	46	4	2.7	7.1	40	1.22	3.66
Junior Guerra	77	66	11	3.5	8.8	76	1.24	4.35
Josh Hader	67 2/3	42	10	3.7	14.1	106	1.03	3.21
Jeremy Jeffress	62	49	6	3.6	10.0	69	1.20	3.54
Corey Knebel	62	42	6	3.9	12.9	89	1.11	3.05
Jake Petricka	52 1/3	55	7	4.3	7.8	45	1.53	4.84
Brent Suter	11 1/3	10	2	2.4	8.2	10	1.19	4.08
Alex Wilson	50 2/3	50	6	3.2	6.5	36	1.33	4.64