José Abreu finally lifting off with Astros: 'That's the player that we knew we signed'
When the Houston Astros signed José Abreu to a three-year, $58.5 million deal mere weeks after winning the 2022 World Series, it sure seemed like the rich got richer. Some around the game questioned a three-year commitment of this magnitude to a first baseman entering his age-36 season, but there was little doubt about what the former AL MVP could provide in the short term.
Yuli Gurriel was a free agent coming off a career-worst .647 OPS in his age-38 season. Gurriel was beloved in Houston — and a modern Cuban baseball legend in his own right — but first base was an obvious spot to upgrade, and Abreu fit splendidly. Long-term outlook for the aging, hulking first base/designated hitter-type be damned — one of the best lineups in baseball appeared to get even better in adding Abreu's offensive thunder to the mix.
As the Astros prepare to face the Rangers on Sunday in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET) — on the heels of Abreu clubbing three home runs over seven at-bats in last week's ALDS — it's easy to forget how uneven his 2023 campaign has been.
For the first two months of the season, Abreu scuffled like he never had before. It wasn't just disappointing relative to the lofty expectations; Abreu was downright bad. His .527 OPS in April was the worst calendar month of his career. That figure rose in May — all the way up to .533. Much was made about Abreu's home run drought to open the year, which lasted until May 28th (50 games).
Really, the power outage had carried over from the end of 2022. Abreu hit just one homer over his final 55 games last season. His final two months with the White Sox were still productive, however. He hit .310 with a .372 OBP over that aforementioned span. Such production was nowhere to be found in his intro stint in Houston, as he was hitting .211 with a .276 OBP when the calendar turned to June. Some of it could be attributed to some poor BABIP luck, but the underlying data — his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and xwOBA were each at or near career lows — suggested Abreu's bat didn't quite pack the same punch it used to. It was ugly.
Through all his struggles — and amid a fierce division race that put more pressure on Houston than recent regular seasons have — Abreu stayed confident.
"When he was going poorly, he told me, ‘It's OK. It's OK,'" manager Dusty Baker said after the Astros closed out the Twins in the ALDS. "When it was going poorly, I was like, man, it ain't OK. But in his mind, he knew that it was OK."
Abreu had never batted lower than fifth in his MLB career until this year, as he occupied the six-hole 33 times and even dropped as low as seventh for a couple of games in August.
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His teammates knew the hitter who had consistently terrorized big-league pitchers for the past decade was still in there somewhere. And while his team stayed patient and supportive, Abreu reciprocated in every way he could.
"Actually, he was the one supporting us," shortstop Jeremy Peña told FOX Sports. "Even though this season may not have gone the way he wanted, he was still the positive one. He's the one that shows up positive every single day. He's the one that puts the work in every single day. You kind of gravitate towards that."
Abreu was quietly much better down the stretch, contributing significantly to Houston's successful chase-down of Texas for the AL West title. Though his batting average remained low, the power started to resurface. Abreu's six homers in September were the most he'd hit in a month since August 2021, and his 26 RBIs were tied for the second-most in the majors.
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Even with the strong finish, Abreu's final season line — .237/.296/.383 — barely resembled that of a three-time All-Star. The .680 OPS was the lowest of his career by more than 100 points. His -0.6 fWAR ranked 130th out of 133 qualified hitters.
But as ex-Astro Carlos Correa proclaimed before the postseason began, "You throw the numbers out the window and the season starts. This is the season that matters."
That was easy for Correa — or any of Abreu's current teammates who have made deep October runs a habit — to say. Through no fault of his own, Abreu had a fraction of such postseason experience before this year — seven total games across two early exits with Chicago in 2020 and 2021. It's one thing for seasoned playoff veterans like Correa to know how to flip the switch after a rough regular season and elevate their games to match the moment. For Abreu, there was no guarantee the high-level performance would suddenly resurface when the stakes were raised, even after an encouraging September.
Abreu went a forgettable 1-for-7 in the Astros' first two playoff games last weekend. But once their division series moved to Minnesota — to a ballpark in Target Field he knew oh so well from his days in the AL Central — Abreu found that proverbial switch. His two titanic homers to left field and five RBI paced Houston's 9-1 blowout victory in Game 3.
In the Astros' 3-2 victory in Game 4, the fearsome foursome atop their order — José Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker — combined to go 1-12 with six punchouts. It was Abreu who delivered the two-run homer in the fifth that ultimately provided enough cushion for Houston's vaunted bullpen to close out the series. Coming off the two-homer showing a day earlier, it was the first time Abreu had launched three homers in a two-game span since August 2020.
"He's won us some games," Peña said. "Every run counts in the playoffs. He's been huge for us."
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Game 4 was the kind of performance opponents surely feared when Abreu first signed with Houston. An offensive unit of Houston's caliber — especially one that is beyond battle-tested in high-leverage games — can already beat you in so many ways. Baseball is hard, though, and even the best players can be quieted in any given game. A team like Minnesota would happily sign up for a 1-for-12 from Houston's 1-2-3-4 hitters if it had the chance. A rejuvenated Abreu batting fifth, however, made it moot.
Pack your lineup with enough hitters who can change the game with a big swing in the right spot, and your own margin for error in October can expand. That's a massive deal, and was the whole intention behind acquiring Abreu in the first place. It took quite a while for his impact in the lineup to be felt in such an obvious way, but it couldn't be coming at a better time for the Astros.
"It's not a surprise to anybody what he's doing," Peña said. "Because that's the player that we knew we signed to this team.
"We just knew it was a matter of time."
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.
