Harvard study picks Dolphins, Seahawks for Super Bowl 50
And to think, for years, we were taught that Harvard was a school for smart kids.
A student at the school has developed a model for predicting the odds for each NFL team to make the 2015 playoffs, and his picks for the top teams in each league are both expected and shocking.
Kurt Ballard had his findings published on the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective webpage. Here is how he got to the numbers for each team:
The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, the site’s best measure of trying to tease out individual talent. Then, using ESPN’s NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team’s per game approximate value of what I considered to be the ‘core’ makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 ‘Front Seven’ defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary.
And what do his numbers show?
In the NFC, the two-time conference champion Seattle Seahawks are again predicted to head to the Super Bowl, with a 95-percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s followed by the Green Bay Packers at 93 percent.
And the AFC? You might want to sit down for this one.
The Miami Dolphins -- yes, those Miami Dolphins -- are the predicted best team in the conference this season, with a 77-percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s followed by the Kansas City Chiefs at 66 percent and the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots at 62 percent.
The complete numbers can be found here.
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