College Football

College Football Playoff championship expert picks: Will Michigan or Washington win it all?

Updated Jan. 4, 2024 1:39 p.m. ET

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RJ Young

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

Laken Litman

College Football & Soccer Analyst

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

Bryan Fischer

College Football Writer

No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Washington will square off on Monday at Houston's NRG Stadium in what should be an epic showdown for college football's national championship.

It's a battle of future Big Ten rivals, as the Huskies are set to leave the Pac-12 next season.

Both teams feature 14-0 records, though both took decidedly different paths to get there.

Michigan bulldozed through its schedule, suffocating opponents with a stifling defense and bullying ground game.

Washington, meanwhile, rode a quick-strike passing game and a magical knack for making big plays, coming out on top in one thrilling finish after another.

So which style will pay off? 

Who will be holding the big trophy on Monday night?

FOX Sports college football experts Bryan Fischer, Michael Cohen, Laken Litman and RJ Young break it down below, offering their analysis — and picks — for the big game.

Who will win the national championship game and why?

RJ Young: Washington

Michigan put Jalen Milroe on his back six times on Monday night. That's tied for the most any team sacked the Alabama quarterback this season and two more sacks than Georgia managed in the SEC championship game last month.

What's telling about Michigan's success in pressuring Milroe is how little defensive coordinator Jesse Minter relied on sending more than four players after him for most of the game. The Wolverines were able to create pressure on Milroe without committing six players to rush him, and their pass defense was good enough to turn Alabama's passing attack into a hood ornament.

They'll have a stiffer challenge against Washington, though. Heisman finalist Michael Penix Jr. is protected by the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. That unit has allowed just 11 sacks all year and no more than two in any single game.

And given time to throw, Penix has shown he's good enough to make any defense pay. His receiver corps has more hits than Cash Money Records. Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk are Big Tymers ready to compete on the sport's biggest stage.

Blake Corum is headed to Houston to get his roll on, too. He leads a Michigan offensive attack that's been on its Mike Jones all year, getting after defenses like Geto Boys rapping "Read These Nikes" — or Jordans if you're up on the logo on their jersey.

No doubt Sherrone Moore noticed the Huskies gave up 180 yards on the ground to Texas, and that their rush defense is ranked 43rd in the country. If the Wolverines can run the ball, they might just find themselves jamming to Megan Thee Stallion's "Captain Hook," 15-0 and leave the sport shook.

But give me Washington, writing a new chapter in the book.

Michael Penix Jr. and No. 2 Washington hold off No. 3 Texas

Laken Litman: Washington

Did you see what Penix did to Texas? The star quarterback was magic in the Sugar Bowl, completing 29 of 38 passes for 430 yards with two touchdowns. He had six passes go for 24 yards or more. He didn't make mistakes. He had a strong pocket presence and always had an answer to get out of a jam. He threw dime after dime and the offense was a beautiful thing to watch with him executing like he did.

His performance on the College Football Playoff semifinal stage exposed the Longhorns secondary, already known to be the team's weakest link. Even with Texas preparing and practicing and studying accordingly, they couldn't fend him off.

In Michigan, Penix faces a significantly better unit. The Wolverines secondary is the second-best in the nation, limiting opponents to 150 yards per game. Alabama's Milroe didn't pose the same kind of threat that Penix will, so it will be interesting to see if Minter's defense can get to Penix. Texas couldn't, notching zero sacks. Penix had time in the pocket to essentially do whatever he wanted.

While Michigan — Washington's future Big Ten conference foe — will pose a larger threat overall, Penix and his army of talented wideouts won't be phased. Neither will its offensive line, which is the best in football and plans to out-muscle Michigan's DL like it did to Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

"Man, the job's not finished," Penix said matter-of-factly after the semifinal victory. "I feel like it's definitely going to take more. I'm going to push myself to get this team more next week."

Washington defeats Texas: Did the best team win?

Michael Cohen: Michigan

For the second consecutive game, the most compelling storyline surrounding Michigan's matchup in the College Football Playoff is how the Wolverines' defense will handle a unique challenge from the opposition. So much of the conversation ahead of Michigan's showdown with Alabama was how Minter and his players would defend mobile quarterback Milroe, one of the best dual-threat players in the country. And when all was said and done, the Wolverines racked up 13 quarterback pressures, six sacks totaling minus-49 yards, and limited Milroe to just 116 passing yards and zero touchdowns.

This week, much of the discussion will focus on Michigan's ability to contend with the best passing offense in college football, as the Huskies lead the nation at 350 yards per game. Penix, a Heisman Trophy finalist, turned in his fourth 400-yard game of the season in the Huskies' 37-31 win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl on Monday night, a performance that included six completions on passes traveling at least 20 yards downfield, two of which resulted in scores. No quarterback slings the ball from sideline to sideline, horizontally and vertically, into coverage and away from defenders, better than Penix.

Give Jim Harbaugh his props after Michigan wins Rose Bowl

Still, the most fascinating aspect of this particular matchup — Minter's defense vs. an offense orchestrated by Penix and designed by head coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb — might be what happens in the trenches rather than Michigan's ability, or inability, to cover Washington's incredible receiving corps downfield. Part of the reason the Wolverines generated so much pressure on Milroe was the quarterback's propensity for holding the ball. In fact, Milroe's average time to throw of 3.44 seconds over the course of the season was the longest of any Power 5 quarterback, according to Pro Football Focus. And the Wolverines sped him up to 2.9 seconds in the Rose Bowl on Monday afternoon.

But even 2.9 seconds might not be fast enough to get to Penix, whose average release time this season was just 2.71 seconds. He's even dropped below 2.6 seconds per throw in five of Washington's 14 games. This means that before anyone begins comparing cornerbacks Will Johnson and Mike Sainristil to wideouts Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk — not to mention Jalen McMillan and Germie Bernard — focus instead on the Wolverines' pass rush. Can interior pass rushers Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Kris Jenkins find ways to disrupt Penix given they have the shortest path to the quarterback? Or can edge rushers Jaylen Harrell, Braiden McGregor, Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart speed-rush their way into the pocket?

Based on the way Minter has torn through his toughest challenges this season — embarrassing Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, harassing Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, tangling up Milroe earlier this week — it's hard to bet against him coming up with a plan for Penix, too. He's in a groove right now as one of the best defensive coordinators in college football. And he'll find a way to shore up the secondary even if the pass rushers can't get home. Michigan will win its first national title since 1997 and its first outright championship since 1948.

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan outlast Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Bryan Fischer: Washington

When the College Football Playoff was selected, it felt like a universal sentiment that any of the four teams picked were capable of winning the national championship. After those thrilling semifinals, the statement continues to ring true and it feels like a real toss-up whether you go with the seeming team of destiny in Washington — given its 10 consecutive wins of fewer than 10 points — or the team that has occupied all the attention this season in Michigan.

My initial read is that this is going to come down to tempo and whoever controls it. If this is one of those title games that turns into a track meet, you have to lean Washington given how much pressure that puts on the Wolverines to keep scoring drive after drive. If this turns into a more grind-it-out affair, I'm not quite sure Washington will be able to avoid getting worn out by the end of the fourth quarter by a Big Ten side that wants to out-physical you when you're at the point of exhaustion. 

The thing I keep coming back to, however, is that Washington has the best player on the field in Odunze. 

Skip Bayless and Michael Irvin discuss Washington's win over Texas

Washington clearly has the best quarterback on the field and the only one of the two capable of flipping momentum, which Penix can do by dropping dimes with a flick of his wrist.

With all due respect to Jim Harbaugh's ability to get his players ready to play, I think Washington has the slight edge at head coach and with his coordinators, too (though Minter feels destined for bigger things soon enough). 

So I'll go with a poetic ending to Pac-12 football as we know it, turning out the lights on the conference of champions by having the Huskies edge their future league rivals in yet another classic title game. 

I have little confidence in just such a prediction knowing fully what the Wolverines are capable of and how much heart and determination they've shown this season. But Washington has that it factor that tends to show up in games like this.

The pick: Washington (three of four votes)

More on the College Football Playoff National Championship

• Everything to know about the championship game 
• Expert picks: Will Michigan or Washington win it all?
• Ranking the top 20 players in the championship game
• Joel Klatt: What to expect from Michigan, Washington
• How high is Michael Penix Jr.'s draft ceiling?

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Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.

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CFB - CFP National Championship - 01/09/2024

Michael Penix Jr.

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