Major League Baseball

Baseball Hall of Fame: The case for and against 10 divisive candidates

Published Jan. 4, 2024 4:11 p.m. ET

The ballots are in, and we are officially less than three weeks away from finding out who will join manager Jim Leyland in the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2024.

This year’s ballot features 26 players — 14 holdovers and 12 newcomers — whose candidacies for Cooperstown election have been thoroughly analyzed and debated over the course of the winter. Some cases are more cut-and-dry than others — we know Adrián Beltré is going to be a Hall of Famer and Brandon Phillips is not. Others, like Álex Rodríguez and Manny Ramírez, inspire plenty of strong feelings in both favor and opposition, but their cases are not especially complicated — the numbers are outrageous, but they were suspended for PEDs. Either you care about that or you don’t — the bulk of the voters clearly do — which leaves less room for the kind of nuanced debate that can be genuinely enjoyable and challenging to engage in.

Fortunately, this year’s ballot features no shortage of players with far more intriguing arguments rooted in their on-field value, and how they stack up among the all-time greats. With the announcement of our newest Hall of Famers looming — and another round of results that hint at which players could eventually earn the necessary 75% for election on the BBWAA ballot — let’s dive into the pros and cons of 10 of the most divisive candidates, as I decide whether they’d make my hypothetical ballot.

The Returners

Todd Helton
Billy Wagner
Andruw Jones
Gary Sheffield
Carlos Beltrán
Álex Rodríguez
Manny Ramírez
Omar Vizquel
Andy Pettitte
Bobby Abreu
Jimmy Rollins
Mark Buehrle
Francisco Rodríguez
Torii Hunter

Here are the cases for seven players who could (eventually) get in.

1. Todd Helton (sixth year on ballot; 2023 vote percentage: 72.2%)

The case for:

I’ve been fairly adamant about Helton’s case in the past with the thesis statement for his candidacy as such: He was a Hall of Famer who happened to play at Coors Field, not a Hall of Famer because he played at Coors Field. His sensational six-year peak may have been overlooked due to Colorado’s lack of relevance in the standings, but stats like OPS+, which adjust for a player’s home ballpark, do a good job of encapsulating Helton’s offensive dominance regardless of the hitter-friendly environment he enjoyed in Colorado. His 158 OPS+ from 2000-2005 ranked fifth in MLB behind only Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Jason Giambi and Ramirez. That’s obscenely good company. And for those hung up on how much of a boost Helton got in Denver, his sterling .855 career road OPS — a hair below that of guys like Ken Griffey Jr. and Reggie Jackson (.860) and ahead Sammy Sosa (.851), Scott Rolen (.841), Eddie Murray (.838) and George Brett (.826) — goes a long way toward squashing the misconception that he was strictly a menace in his home park.

The case against:

Park-adjusted metrics like OPS+, as well as Helton’s stellar track record of raking on the road help support his legitimacy as one of his generation’s best bats regardless of his home park. Still, it’s undeniable that a full career playing at elevation markedly buoyed his counting stats. Though he played in just 35 more home games than road games over the course of his career, he collected 154 more extra-base hits at Coors Field than he did in games away from Denver. His 1.048 career home OPS in 4,841 plate appearances ranks eighth all time behind six Hall of Famers and Barry Bonds.

As great as Helton was, no one would mistake him as one of the 10 greatest hitters in the history of the game — but that was the kind of effect Coors Field had on him. In turn, if you discount Helton’s career offensive totals across the board, his standing relative to the other premier players at his position in Cooperstown starts to look a lot shakier. Heck, it took a committee to get Fred McGriff into the Hall of Fame with an awfully similar résumé, while Carlos Delgado fell off the ballot after just one year. The bar for first basemen is exceptionally high, and while I believe Helton clears it, it’s not unreasonable to argue that Coors Field did ultimately boost his case into a more comfortable position than any other ballpark could.

The verdict: Yes

Though he hasn’t made any obvious strides on the public ballots thus far, I still feel like Helton will sneak above the 75% necessary for election later this month. It’s possible the strong crop of newcomers to this year’s ballot makes it difficult for him to make gains with voters who are already considering voting for the maximum 10 players. At the same time, with how quickly Helton’s support has vaulted from a sub-30% mark in 2020 to near induction in 2023, it’s hard for me to believe he’ll fail to bring in an additional 3% of votes necessary to finally get the call. It might have taken Larry Walker the full 10 years to get in, but Helton’s wait should end here in Year 6, or Year 7 at worst.

2. Billy Wagner (ninth year; 2023 vote percentage: 68.1%)

The case for:

From a narrative perspective, Wagner’s journey from being an undersized pitcher at a small Division-III school in Virginia to becoming one of the most dominant relievers the game has ever seen is arguably the most remarkable of anyone on the ballot. But you don’t get into Cooperstown just for being a neat story. Wagner’s candidacy has picked up serious momentum in recent years as underlying stats have established his standing as one of MLB's most lights-out relief aces of all time. Aside from an injury-riddled 2000, Wagner was downright dynamite in each of his 14 other seasons, including a final campaign at age 38 that somehow matched nearly any of the ones that came before it. There was no decline; from his ascendent days in Houston to the end of the road in Atlanta, Wagner’s fearsome four-seamer and wicked slider overwhelmed and flummoxed the best hitters on earth to a staggering degree and without interruption. His 2.31 ERA is the second-lowest in the live ball era (since 1920), behind only Mariano Rivera.

The case against:

It’s fair to acknowledge that the bar for relievers to earn induction into the Hall of Fame should be higher than that of starters — there are only eight relievers enshrined, after all. And while Wagner’s regular-season résumé is arguably on-par on a per-game basis with Rivera, Wagner’s postseason showings (10.03 ERA in 14 appearances) were far from it. And while we might be able to shrug off the handful of October outings as a small sample, Wagner’s relatively small body of work overall is difficult for some voters to grapple with. His 903 innings pitched would be the fewest of any Hall of Fame pitcher by a comfortable margin (Bruce Sutter’s 1,042 frames is the current low watermark). In the eyes of some, the weight of Wagner’s eye-popping rate stats is lessened when considering the sample at hand.

The verdict: Yes

Wagner’s gains over the past few years are as encouraging as they are shocking, considering how stuck he appeared early on. Wagner failed to clear even 16% support in any of his first four years on the ballot before rising to 31.7% in 2020, followed by 46.4% in 2021 and 51% in 2022, to seemingly within striking distance of election at 68.1% in 2023. This trajectory suggests a strong chance of Wagner becoming the ninth reliever in Cooperstown, but whether that happens this year or next, in what would be his final year of eligibility, is anybody’s guess. He’s going to be right on the bubble when the results are announced later this month.

3. Andruw Jones (seventh year; 2023 vote percentage: 58.1%)

The case for:

Jones wasn’t just a great young player when he burst onto the scene with Atlanta in 1996, he was a full-blown phenom. Still the only player to ever homer in the World Series as a teenager, Jones helped inspire an entire generation of ballplayers from his native island of Curaçao with his star-level play for the late-'90s Braves. He is considered by many to be the greatest defensive center fielder the game has ever seen — that’s a strong elevator pitch for a Cooperstown candidate on its own, but shines especially in tandem with his offensive track record. Combined with a prodigious power stroke that peaked with 51 homers and an NL MVP runner-up finish in 2005, few players impacted the game on both sides of the ball the way Jones did during his prime.

The case against:

There is virtually zero precedent of a Hall of Famer producing as little in their 30s as Jones did. His career fell off a cliff after his time in Atlanta, beginning with a disastrous Dodgers stint that he never seemed to quite recover from. He accrued just 4.7 WAR across six seasons from age 30 on, with 3.0 coming in his age-30 season (his last with the Braves). While he managed to stick around long enough to reach 400 homers, it felt like a lackluster consolation for a player who appeared to be on track for so much more: Jones’ 342 home runs through his age-29 season were tied with Henry Aaron and Mel Ott for the seventh-most all time. That Jones seemingly squandered the opportunity to become an all-time great, more so due to a lack of effort than any sort of debilitating injury, is held strongly against him when considering the totality of his career in a Hall of Fame context.

The verdict: No

Normally a candidate clearing the 50% threshold with a few years on the ballot to spare, as Jones did a year ago, is a strong indicator of future induction. But I’m not sold that he’s definitively on his way just yet. He’s climbed a good bit since debuting at 7.3% support in 2018, but there’s more work to do. With just three more chances on the BBWAA ballot after this one, Jones’ gains this year will be especially instructive — if he doesn’t get up toward 65% support this year, it may end up being a pretty close call as his time on the ballot winds down.

4. Gary Sheffield (10th year; 2023 vote percentage: 55%)

The case for:

Sheffield was a force of nature at the plate, with an iconic bat waggle still imitated to this day by multiple generations of fans and an overwhelming collection of offensive metrics to support his uniquely intimidating presence in the box. That Sheffield could swing with such verve and violence without ever striking out more than 83 times in a single season while regularly slugging over .500 is a testament to a level of bat speed and barrel control rarely seen in the same hitter. His career 140 OPS+ in nearly 11,000 career plate appearances is equal to A-Rod and Miguel Cabrera. Even in an era chock-full of super sluggers, Sheffield stood out in a meaningful way.

The case against:

The only reason Sheffield wasn’t elected years ago is due to his inclusion in the infamous Mitchell Report and reported implication in the 2004 BALCO scandal involving the use of performance-enhancing drugs. Beyond his PED association, Sheffield also suffers from a career-long reputation as a dreadful defender supported to an extreme degree by a career -27.7 dWAR, which trails only Adam Dunn for the worst mark in baseball history. It also doesn’t help Sheffield that he bounced around the league as often as he did. While some players get bonus points for longstanding associations with one franchise, Sheffield experienced the exact opposite, playing for eight different teams across 22 years — and none for longer than six seasons.

The verdict: Yes

Though he might still fall short, Sheffield falls into the same category as Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens as presumed PED users who played before rigorous testing was enforced, clearly offering more leeway for voters to consider their candidacies in a slightly different light than the likes of Rodríguez and Ramírez, who were actually suspended for PED use during their careers. That is reflected in the fact that Sheffield cleared the 50% mark a year ago, while A-Rod and Manny have yet to push even 40% support. Sheffield has made some gains in his 10th and final year of eligibility, but likely not quite enough. Still, I am fascinated to see if he finishes with more or less than the 66% Bonds earned in his final year on the ballot in 2022. And just as I believe Bonds and Clemens could one day get elected with the right combination of a veterans committee voters, I think Sheffield could as well.

5. Carlos Beltrán (second year; 2023 vote percentage: 46.5%)

The case for:

The 1999 AL Rookie of the Year, Beltrán’s all-around game first shined in small-market Kansas City before manifesting on some of baseball’s biggest stages. He is one of just five members of the 400 HR/300 stolen base club, alongside Barry Bonds, A-Rod, Willie Mays and Andre Dawson. Beltrán’s 70.1 career WAR is eighth all time among switch-hitters, behind six Hall of Famers and Pete Rose. Better yet, his splits from each side of the plate are astoundingly balanced for someone with as long of a career as he had: Beltrán hit .279/.353/.481 batting left-handed and .280/.343/.501 swinging righty. On top of two decades of high-level regular season production, Beltrán also boasts one of the most impressive playoff résumés in baseball history: Among 103 players with at least 200 career plate appearances in October, Beltrán’s 1.021 OPS (with more walks than strikeouts!) ranks at the very top of the list.

The case against:

While his statistical résumé is difficult to dispute, Beltrán’s reportedly heavy involvement in the devising and execution of the Astros’ sign-stealing operation has seemingly been held against him by some in the electorate, not to mention cost him his opportunity to manage the Mets. Early returns, however, have already shown Beltrán as one of this year’s biggest gainers among returning voters. Beltrán likely paid a tax in his debut on the ballot, but it's not one that will doom him from future election. I’m not sure that he would’ve sailed in on the first ballot, anyway, though he probably would’ve garnered more than 50% of the vote.

The verdict: Yes

It won’t happen this year, but I do believe Beltrán will rightfully earn induction in the not-so-distant future as we collectively move on from what happened in Houston, or at the very least, stop treating Beltrán as the primary culprit and deserving of the bulk of the blame. Perhaps more importantly, I hope he gets another chance to manage in the majors, as well.

6. Bobby Abreu (fifth year on ballot; 2023 vote percentage: 15.4%)

The case for:

Abreu’s tremendous durability across 18 seasons enabled him to become one of just 86 players to log 10,000 plate appearances — an achievement in and of itself, and validated by the fact 61 of those players are already in Cooperstown with five more (Beltré, Beltrán, Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols, Cabrera) soon joining them. It’s not just that Abreu played forever, either: His .395 career OBP ranks 17th among those 86 members of Club 10K, trailing 15 Hall of Famers and Barry Bonds. For reference, Aaron Judge currently owns a .396 career OBP in about one-third of Abreu’s career PA total. With the on-base ability came an underrated power-speed combination, as well: Abreu is one of just four hitters in MLB history with at least 250 HRs, 400 steals and 500 doubles (Craig Biggio, Rickey Henderson, Bonds). Abreu's nine 20/20 seasons are third-most all time behind Barry and Bobby Bonds (10 each). Abreu’s 60.2 WAR is second all time among Venezuelan-born players behind Cabrera. This all sounds pretty good! So, what’s the hang up?

The case against:

For as much as we can pore over candidates’ statistical resumes to size up their chances at Cooperstown, there’s also a more intangible element to each individual’s case involving the admittedly abstract question: Did it feel like we were watching a future Hall of Famer during this player’s career? For Abreu, the answer, respectfully, is no. And while some of the raw numbers jump off his Baseball-Reference page, Abreu’s lack of awards and accolades — he made just two All-Star games and never finished higher than 12th in MVP voting — reflect that even in his prime, he largely wasn't considered among the game's elite. Johnny Damon is another outfielder with similarly gaudy counting stats (albeit with far less on-base ability) and a far more impressive postseason résumé than Abreu, and fell off the ballot after just one year.

The verdict: Yes

Considering Abreu barely managed to stay on the ballot in his debut, garnering just 5.5% in his first year in 2020, the fact that we are still considering him as a candidate involves some good fortune. Now, any progress toward induction is going to require a monumental effort from the sabermetric community to promote his credentials as a pinnacle of OBP mastery. Otherwise, his candidacy will be stuck in the mud for the next half-decade, perhaps left to be debated by a veterans committee long after he falls off the writer’s ballot.

7. Francisco Rodríguez (second year on ballot; 2023 vote percentage: 10.8%)

The case for:

At a position that has proven to be as volatile as ever in the modern game, the length of Rodríguez’s track record of late-game excellence stands out significantly among his peers. His introduction to the baseball world during the Angels’ 2002 World Series run was one of the greatest performances we’ve ever seen from any reliever in October, let alone one who was just 20 years old. Though Troy Percival’s presence kept the full-time closer job from Rodríguez until 2005, he still managed to amass 437 career saves. The three guys ahead of him on that list (Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith) are already in Cooperstown. Only Rivera can also claim as many top-four Cy Young finishes among relievers as Rodríguez’s three, headlined by his record-setting 2008 (62 saves).

The case against:

While Rodríguez’s prolific pile of saves checks the most traditional box of closer quality, he wasn’t quite as elite from an ERA or WHIP standpoint as someone like Wagner, or even contemporary closers like Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. Even Jonathan Papelbon compares favorably to Rodríguez, albeit with less volume, and he got just five votes in his lone year on the ballot in 2022.

The verdict: No

It might seem like a mountain to climb for K-Rod, but consider that the 10.8% support he received on his ballot debut is nearly identical to the 10.5% Wagner got in his first round of voting back in 2016. If the electorate continues to push for more serious consideration of the game’s best relievers — the kind that someone like Joe Nathan deserved more of — Rodríguez should be at the forefront of those discussions. For now, I’d bet against him getting the same kind of groundswell of support that Wagner has.

The Newcomers

Adrián Beltré
Joe Mauer
Chase Utley
David Wright
Bartolo Colón
Matt Holliday
Adrián González
José Bautista
José Reyes
Víctor Martínez
James Shields
Brandon Phillips

Now, let’s turn our attention to the debutants. These dozen familiar faces feature some of the most entertaining and wildly likable players we’ve seen this century, but only a handful have a realistic chance at Cooperstown. For starters, we know Beltré is getting in; it's now just a matter of his final vote tally. He’s looking to become the 60th first-ballot Hall of Famer, but only 18 of those electees did it with 95% of the vote. Beltré has a great chance to join that inner-circle of the game’s greats.

While Beltré is a no-brainer, three other new candidates emerge as more ripe for a closer look.

1. David Wright

The case for:

It’s no surprise that a player with the nickname "Captain America" was one of the most beloved of his generation, and for the first decade of his career, Wright had the numbers to back up his esteemed moniker. Among players who played at least 60% of their games at third base, Wright’s 46.5 WAR through his age-30 season ranks 10th among his positional peers, ahead of current or future Hall of Famers like Beltré, Chipper Jones, Nolan Arenado and Brooks Robinson. Even at 30 years old, Wright posted a career-high 156 WRC+ that ranked fifth in MLB (min. 450 PA), suggesting a clear ability ability to sustain star-level production as he got older. Unfortunately, we all know what happened next.

The case against:

The record for fewest games played in their 30s to still make it to the Hall of Fame belongs to Hank Greenberg with 364; a low total entirely due to Greenberg serving in the Air Force during WWII and missing three full seasons. Though not his fault, Wright’s meager total of 323 games played in his 30s due to injury made it impossible for him to accrue the kind of numbers necessary for a more substantial case.

The verdict: No

Early returns suggest it could be a close call for Wright to even earn the 5% minimum required to stay on the ballot, but I think he’ll stick around for at least one more year.

2. Chase Utley

The case for:

Though he never won an MVP like his teammates Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, Utley was clearly the heart and soul of the Phillies — and their most well-rounded player — during their reign at or near the top of the National League in the late aughts. From 2005-2010, only Pujols (52.1) amassed more WAR than Utley (45.5), with A-Rod checking in at a fairly distant third (38.3). Overall, Utley’s 64.5 career WAR — boosted considerably by exquisite advanced defensive metrics that support his reputation as a glovesmith despite never winning any Gold Gloves — is right in line with that of the average Hall of Fame second baseman.

The case against:

While the balanced nature of Utley’s game might have been his calling card, it also speaks to a relative lack of statistical firepower in his résumé beyond the gaudy WAR total that satisfies the sabermetrically-inclined. It is exceedingly rare — especially over the past few decades — to see position players get into the Hall of Fame with fewer than 2,000 career hits (Utley sits at 1,885). The most recent such example was Tony Oliva, who made it via a veterans committee ballot in 2022, but he had three batting titles to his name. Utley was a great overall player at his peak, but it’d be a stretch to call him an elite hitter for more than just a handful of seasons. And while it’s somewhat unfathomable that he never finished higher than seventh in NL MVP voting during his six-year peak, his relative lack of high-end accolades on both sides of the ball could spook some voters in the early stages of his candidacy.

The verdict: Yes

I personally find Utley’s case to be maybe the most difficult to decipher, though I find myself leaning yes the more I dig into it, even if he wouldn’t be one of my first eight or nine picks on a hypothetical ballot. That said, I like Utley’s chances of marching his way to the necessary 75% in a half-decade or less if he indeed debuts in the 35-45% range, as currently projected. He could realistically chart a similar path to the one taken by Ryne Sandberg — an infielder with comparable metrics across the board but far more hardware to show for it — who debuted on the ballot at 49.2% in 2003 before ultimately earning induction two years later. I’d bet against that level of expediency for Utley’s eventual election, but I think he’ll get the call at some point.

3. Joe Mauer

The case for:

Much of Mauer’s career arc is fit for Hollywood: multi-sport phenom gets drafted first overall by his hometown team and spends his entire career as the face of the franchise in Minnesota, and his first two kids were actual twins, to boot. Mauer’s tremendous pure hitting ability was revered by his peers from the moment he made his MLB debut a few weeks before his 21st birthday. Over his first decade, only Miguel Cabrera collected hits at a higher rate than Mauer’s .323 batting average — and I don’t recall Cabrera squatting behind home plate for nearly 8,000 innings during that span the way Mauer did. For Mauer to combine such an otherworldly offensive standard while enduring the rigors — and also mastering — the art of catching is what makes his Cooperstown case so compelling.

Mauer’s three batting titles (2006, 2008, 2009) account for half of the batting titles ever won by a catcher (1926 Bubbles Hargrave, 1938 Ernie Lombardi, 2012 Buster Posey). Mauer’s 7.8 WAR during his terrific MVP campaign in 2009 was the fifth-highest mark produced by a catcher in a single season, while his .365 batting average hasn’t been topped by anyone since. (Luis Arráez, who flirted with .400 this past summer, finished at .354 last year. Not even close!) Mauer's 55.2 career WAR is 9th all-time among catchers, and every single player ahead of him on the list is already in the Hall of Fame.

The case against:

If you consider Mauer’s MVP season as an exaggerated caricature of his power and strictly consider the rest of his body of work — which never featured more than 13 homers in a season — his offensive prowess may feel a tad overstated. His hit tool might be entirely worth glorifying, but 143 career home runs is awfully low for a Hall of Fame hitter, even compared to his fellow catchers. And while the consistency in his 30s helped him reach 2,000 hits and maintain a Cooperstown-caliber career average of .306, Mauer hit a fairly pedestrian .278/.359/.388 over his final five seasons, which didn’t especially stand out for the positions he was playing at that point (1B/DH).

The verdict: Yes

I think what Mauer was able to accomplish offensively before his time behind the plate became untenable was absolutely Hall of Fame-worthy, and I expect him to be rewarded as such, possibly this year. I’m not sure I expected Mauer to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when he first retired, but I am glad to see there is consensus about how special of a player he was at his peak at the game’s most demanding position. I expect the BBWAA electorate to come to a similar conclusion on Posey once he hits the ballot in 2027.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.