National Basketball Association

NBA odds: How Chris Paul's injury impacts the Phoenix Suns' futures lines

Published Feb. 25, 2022 1:12 p.m. ET

Fans and bettors are excited to watch the second half of the NBA season tip-off. The Phoenix Suns, however, are likely not as jubilant as they must now navigate the competitive West with Chris Paul sidelined for six to eight weeks.

From a gambling perspective, the Suns are currently listed at +425 to win the title at FOX Bet. Can Phoenix stay atop the Finals futures while the Point God recovers from a fractured thumb on his shooting hand? Or will Golden State — a team already hot on the Suns' heels — overtake Phoenix in the odds and in the standings?

According to FOX Sports research, CP3 has only missed three regular-season games during his two seasons with the Suns. In those matchups, the Suns went 3-0 against the spread (ATS) and 3-0 straight up (SU).

So wagering the Suns without CP in the lineup during the regular season has been profitable. But how about when it comes to the playoffs?

In the two playoff games Chris Paul missed as a Sun — both home games against the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals — the Suns went 1-1 ATS and 2-0 SU.

And speaking of playoffs, Phoenix's Cinderella run during the 2021 season was epic. The franchise made it to its first Finals since 1993, led by then second-year head coach Monty Williams, Devin Booker, an "aging" superstar in Paul and a young core.

Though they eventually lost to Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks, does the team's recent run set a precedent for how Phoenix might fare in the Finals this year, giving them hope while their veteran leader heals up?

Well, since the 2000 NBA season, there have been seven instances in which a team made the Finals after losing in it the season before.

Can Phoenix become the eighth team to get back to the dance after losing the year before? For an oddsmaker's perspective, we chatted with FOX Bet content integration specialist Dylan Brossman.

"The Suns Finals futures are +425 at FOX Bet, and we have not changed our futures even with the CP3 news," Brossman noted. "They remain the favorite to win it all with CP3 expected to make a full return before the start of the playoffs.

"Phoenix currently has a six-and-a-half game lead over the second-seeded Warriors, and we expect the Suns' depth and continuity to keep them atop the Western Conference standings."

Chris Paul, though, leads the Association with 10.7 assists per game. So with the value that he adds to his team, one might think that bettors should be shy on the Suns during the nine-time All-Star's lengthy absence.

Brossman doesn't see it that way.

"Despite CP3 being one of the Suns’ most important pieces, we expect his absence to only move the needle for regular-season games by one or two points on average," the bookmaker explained.

"Without Paul, the Suns still have SIX players averaging double-digits and one of the league's leading scorers in Devin Booker (25.5 ppg). They have the depth and star power to fill in the gaps admirably while he's out."

And when it comes to how Chris Paul's MVP futures will be impacted while he recovers, Brossman said that CP officially has zero chance of being named the league's best player.

"We removed him completely from our MVP market. He'll miss too many remaining games to be considered for the MVP."

But back to Booker. While Phoenix awaits Paul's return, the Kentucky Wildcat-turned-NBA All-Star will carry the load and keep the Suns afloat, according to Brossman.

"Booker’s MVP odds have shortened a bit on the heels of CP3’s injury news from +3500 to +2000. For the first half of the season, it was difficult to differentiate who provided more value to the Suns winning, and the Phoenix backcourt cannibalized each other’s MVP chances.

"Now, Booker will be given a golden opportunity to prove his worth without Paul. If Booker can continue to produce All-Star numbers and maintain the Suns' lead in the West, he will throw himself earnestly into the MVP conversation."

From Paul sitting out to Booker stepping up, it will be fascinating to watch what happens with Phoenix in the second half of the season.

Will the Suns stay hot while Chris Paul heals? If you're ready to throw some cash on Phoenix to keep rising, head over to FOX Bet right now for the action!

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