National Football League

Super Bowl 2022 odds: One trend Rams' Matt Stafford should worry about

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 2:56 p.m. ET

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The Los Angeles Rams acquired quarterback Matthew Stafford in a spring blockbuster trade with the Detroit Lions. Los Angeles paid a steep price to acquire Stafford, but the signal-caller has proven that he's worth the cost of admission. 

L.A. is ramming its way into a second Super Bowl appearance in three years largely because of Stafford's generational talent and football IQ. The "win now at all costs" mentality will pay off if the QB can deliver a W over the Bengals at SoFi Stadium in Super Bowl LVI.

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft will be just the sixth quarterback to play in the Big Game in his first season with a new team. So how have quarterbacks in Stafford's current situation done in past Super Bowls? 

From a historical and gambling perspective, those previous QBs went just 1-4 straight up (SU) but were 3-2 against the spread (ATS). Overall, Stafford is also 84-98-6 ATS for his career (regular season and playoffs). 

After 12 lackluster seasons in Detroit, much of Matthew's legacy is riding on this Super Bowl. And speaking of legacies, let's dive into the ones left by quarterbacks who were once in Stafford's shoes.

Here's how all five of those previous quarterbacks did in their first Super Bowls with new teams:

Daryle Lamonica, Oakland Raiders, Super Bowl II

Lamonica was traded to the Raiders prior to the 1967 season. The Raiders went 13-1 in the regular season with "The Mad Bomber" at quarterback during the 1967 season, with Lamonica being named the AFL Player of the Year.

But, in Super Bowl II against the Green Bay Packers, Lamonica came up short. He finished 15-for-34 passing (44.1%) for 208 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception.

Result: Packers 33, Raiders 14
Spread: Raiders +13.5 (did not cover)
Over/under: 43 points (over)

Earl Morrall, Baltimore Colts, Super Bowl III

Future Hall of Famer Johnny Unitas, the 1967 NFL MVP, was the Colts' starting QB but suffered a serious arm injury during the preseason. Morrall started all 14 regular-season games in Unitas' place, leading the Colts to a 13-1 record and the NFL championship after two more wins.

He was named the NFL's MVP, as the Colts advanced to Super Bowl III against the New York Jets.

Morrall struggled against the Jets though and was replaced late in the third quarter by Unitas. Another loss.

Result: Jets 16, Colts 7
Spread: Colts +18 (covered)
Over/under: 40 points (under)

Craig Morton, Denver Broncos, Super Bowl XII

Morton was traded prior to the 1977 season by the Giants to the Broncos. Morton was named NFL Comeback Player of the Year and the AFC Offensive Player of the Year as the Broncos went 12-2 in the regular season.

But Morton struggled against his former team in Super Bowl XII and was replaced by Norris Weese in the third quarter. Meaning, the losing trend continued.

Result: Cowboys 27, Broncos 10
Spread: Broncos +6 (did not cover)
Over/under: 39 points (under)

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers, Super Bowl XXXVIII

Delhomme signed with the Panthers prior to the 2003 season, and at halftime of the season opener, he replaced starter Rodney Peete. Delhomme started the remaining 15 games of the regular season as Carolina finished the regular season 11-5 and made a run to the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately, the New England Patriots beat the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII on Adam Vinatieri's 41-yard field goal with four seconds remaining. Another L for new QBs.

Result: Patriots 32, Panthers 29
Spread: Panthers +7 (covered)
Over/under: 37.5 points (over)

Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles, Super Bowl LII

Foles returned to the Eagles (team that drafted him) for his second stint as a free agent prior to the 2017 season as the backup to Carson Wentz. After Wentz suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 14 in 2017, Foles took over. The QB then started the rest of the way, leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl.

In the Big Game, Foles finished 28-for-43 passing for 373 yards, with three passing TDs and one interception. He also caught a 1-yard TD pass from tight end, Trey Burton, known as the infamous "Philly Special." 

Foles was named Super Bowl MVP after he became the first player to catch and throw a TD pass in a Super Bowl. And the QB was also the first and only signal-caller to win and buck the aforementioned losing trend.

Result: Eagles 41, Patriots 33
Spread: Eagles +4.5 (covered)
Over/under: 48.5 points (over)

Now, back to Stafford. He had quite an impressive first year with the Rams, going 404-for-601 passing (67.2%), 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns during the regular season.

Can he carry that magic into the Super Bowl against Cincinnati? And will the Lion-turned-Ram become the second starting quarterback after Nick Foles to lead his team to a Lombardi Trophy in his first year with a team?

SUPER BOWL LVI

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Point spread: Rams -4 (Rams favored to win by more than 4 points, otherwise Bengals cover)
Moneyline: Rams -200 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15 total); Bengals +145 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $24.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 48 points scored by both teams combined

According to FOX Bet commercial manager Jacob Blangsted-Barnor, the short answer is yes.  

"You add a player that has shown tremendous talent while playing in a poor situation like Detroit to a winning situation like coach Sean McVay's, and you've got a great recipe."

So are you ready to get into the mix of this Super Bowl action? Head over to FOX Bet and throw some cash on Stafford to make history in the Big Game!

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!

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