National Football League

Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 16 odds; Ravens-49ers line off

Published Dec. 18, 2023 3:11 p.m. ET

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week's NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we've got you covered.

Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.

So, without further ado, let's jump into their analysis for Week 16, including what might be a Super Bowl preview taking place in the Bay.

Ravens @ 49ers (-5)

Jason McIntyre: Too high

Despite being the best team in the league and averaging 34.5 ppg during this 6-0 streak — 4-2 ATS, with the two non-covers being as double-digit favorites — this number is simply too high against Lamar Jackson and his elite defense.

This is the first time the Ravens have been underdogs since week two.

Saints @ Rams (-4)

Sam Panayotovich: Just right

The Rams are playing really good football right now, but you’ll definitely see some support for the Saints and their defense at this price. This is a really fair line.

Bengals (-2) @ Steelers

Sam Panayotovich: Too low

Let’s give Jake Browning a ton of credit for keeping the Bengals alive in the playoff hunt. I’m just not at the point in my life where I want to lay points with him on the road.

Bills (-13.5) @ Chargers

Jason McIntyre: Too high

Come on. The Bills are hot, and everyone is talking about them, but historically, I love to back teams after a coach is fired.

The Bills crushed the Cowboys and now travel across the country on a holiday weekend for a game against a deflated team.

If you can get 14 points, you’ve got to take it.

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Lions (-3.5) @ Vikings

Jason McIntyre: Too low

Yes, the Lions are off an impressive island-game blowout of Denver, which will get the public back on Jared Goff and company.

The Vikings blitz-happy defense folded badly late against Jake Browning, and the Lions offense is much more dangerous.

Commanders @ Jets (-3)

Geoff Schwartz: Who knows?

What am I supposed to think about this game? As of right now, we don’t know who is playing quarterback for either team and both teams stink. The Jets are far better on defense and at home, so that gives them the bump to three points. I guess.

Packers (-4.5) @ Panthers

Geoff Schwartz: Just right

The Packers were 6.5-point favorites at the Giants two weeks ago, so this number jives with that.

The Packers have looked worse the last two weeks, while the Panthers just beat the Falcons in a rainy, cold game in Charlotte. So the number is a bump down for the Packers and a slight bump up for the Panthers.

Browns @ Texans (-2.5)

Geoff Schwartz: Just right

This number would indicate Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is back into the lineup giving the Texans a bump into being a favorite.

The Browns quarterback Joe Flacco appeared to come back to earth last weekend, and if the Texans get some players back off the injury list, this will be a close game between two teams fighting for the playoffs.

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Colts (-2) @ Falcons

Sam Panayotovich: Too high

The Colts could very well be a playoff team, but the Falcons are erratic enough to win or lose any of these coin-flip games. Don’t be surprised if this closes around a pick ‘em.

Seahawks (-2.5) @ Titans

Geoff Schwartz: Too low

While the Titans are money as an underdog with Mike Vrabel as head coach, this number is too low for a bad team playing for nothing.

The Titans are eliminated from postseason play and ranked 25th in DVOA.

The Seahawks are fighting for a playoff spot, and I’d make this game over a field goal for the Seahawks.

Jaguars (-2) @ Buccaneers

Jason McIntyre: Too low.

Everyone is selling the Jaguars because of the three-game losing streak, which has included losses to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco.

The Jags are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) as road favorites, the Tampa defense won’t get many stops here.

Cowboys @ Dolphins (-1.5)

Geoff Schwartz: Just right

The Cowboys stunk against the Bills on Sunday, and this line is still barely over a pick 'em with the Dolphins hosting.

Vegas is telling you who is better.

The Cowboys have beaten one team with a winning record, while the Dolphins have beaten zero teams with a winning record.

Cardinals @ Bears (-4.5)

Jason McIntyre: Just right

The initial lean here is to the Bears, at home, in what appears to be rain and gross December weather.

The Cardinals rushed for 234 yards against San Francisco, but that was with the 49ers two starting DTs inactive. They won’t have much room to operate against the Bears.

Patriots @ Broncos (-6)

Sam Panayotovich: Just right

Bill Belichick looks about as disinterested as possible and Bailey Zappe stinks. The Broncos are home for the first time in four games, but I still don’t want to lay the wood.

Raiders @ Chiefs (-10)

Sam Panayotovich: Too low.

The Raiders just scored 63 points last Thursday, and now they’re catching 10. If that doesn’t raise your eyebrows as a sports bettor, I don’t know what to tell you. KC wins big.

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Giants @ Eagles (-10.5)

Geoff Schwartz: Too low

When the Eagles beat the Seahawks on Monday night, this number is going to fly closer to 14.

The Tommy DeVito storyline was fun for two weeks but predictably came crashing back down to earth against the Saints. The same fate awaits the Giants in Philadelphia.

Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.