National Football League

Why Patriots would be smart to at least consider trading down from No. 3

Updated Apr. 22, 2024 3:27 p.m. ET

There is (and has been) a consensus about the top three quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft: USC's Caleb Williams, LSU's Jayden Daniels and UNC's Drake Maye.

Ranking those three might generate some dissent. For the most part, it goes 1) Williams, 2) Daniels and 3) Maye. When it comes to ranking the fourth quarterback, the name that comes up most often — when speaking with NFL scouts and media members — is Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

So then the question is: How close is McCarthy to Maye?

That question is at the heart of questions surrounding the New England Patriots, who pick at third overall but don't seem wholly interested in staying at third overall. Both executive Eliot Wolf and coach Jerod Mayo have expressed an openness to moving down the draft board for the right price. They are listening to offers, per The Athletic’s Dianna Russini, and owner and president Jonathan Kraft is heavily involved. A move down the board might look tempting, too, if Maye isn't head-and-shoulders better than McCarthy.

The upside? The Patriots, one of the least-talented teams in the NFL, can add a haul of draft picks while still landing one of the top six quarterbacks in this year's draft.

But no one seems to agree on how far apart those top six prospects sit — and, in particular, how far apart the top four prospects sit (including McCarthy).

While McCarthy seems to be making a big move up the draft board (at least in mock drafts where he's almost always in the top 10), he is apples to Maye's oranges.

"Maye has better physical traits," an AFC national scout told me this week. "McCarthy is the better manager, has won more. But he's not as physically gifted."

That's the short of it.

It's possible but improbable that Daniels is on the board when the Patriots pick. So let's quickly acknowledge what they would be getting if he's there. Daniels' tape offers a fun glimpse at what Lamar Jackson might have looked like at a big program like LSU (rather than Lousiville). Daniels is an outstanding passer with touch and the range to target deep and intermediate areas. Daniels is slender in frame and aggressive when running the ball, which can be a recipe for injury. But he is, on the whole, the complete prospect.

That's why I see him going at No. 2. That's why I can't see the Patriots moving back if Daniels is somehow there at third overall.

So … back to Maye and McCarthy.

NFL Draft: QB predictions on J.J. McCarthy, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye

Maye is the classically terrifying Projection Prospect in the same vein as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert … and Trey Lance and Zach Wilson. Maye is physically imposing (6-foot-4, 230 pounds) and can rip the ball across the field and downfield with ideal velocity. He also doesn't lack touch when necessary.

The problems? He has mechanical issues. His production isn't what you'd expect from a top-tier QB, and it's hard to know whether to blame him or his supporting cast — or both. Maye could get to Josh Allen levels where the splash plays are regular and impactful enough to wipe away the mistakes. If that never happens, then Maye might go the way of Lance and Wilson. (Yikes!)

Is Drake Maye the riskiest QB prospect?

McCarthy, meanwhile, feels a bit like Alex Smith. McCarthy proved he can win big games and he knows how to take care of the ball. But the problem with McCarthy is upside. He doesn't have the arm strength that'll open up an offense. McCarthy has movement skills that far exceed Mac Jones. They're really not the same prospect whatsoever. And yet I wonder if some of Jones' limitations might appear at times on McCarthy's film. Might those limitations scare away the Patriots, who just nosedived the career of a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect like McCarthy?

"I think they both [Maye and McCarthy] need a year on the bench. Drake is obviously bigger, a little more prototype but pretty close [in quality]," an AFC executive said.

Of course, not everyone sees Maye and McCarthy in the same tier.

"I think Maye just has so much more upside than the other two, so I think there is a substantial difference," an AFC college scout said. "[Michael] Penix and McCarthy are in a similar range."

Penix is a big pocket passer in the Ben Roethlisberger mold. But imagine if Roethlisberger entered the NFL having already had two serious shoulder injuries and two serious knee injuries. Penix's medicals are the key to his draft status — his health will dictate whether he's a top-15 pick or a top-50 pick. Penix is right there with Bo Nix, the last QB jockeying to land in Round 1. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein compared the Oregon QB to Tony Romo. Nix, 24, is a smart player who favored check-downs enough to worry NFL teams.

The Patriots are probably going to end up with one of these quarterbacks. Owner Robert Kraft said he wanted the team to land an exciting young QB in this year's draft. So Wolf, the de-facto general manager, is likely to nab one.

But where?

Where Bo Nix lands in Joel Klatt’s final 2024 NFL mock draft

There will likely be offers for the Patriots to move down. The Minnesota Vikings, for example, have stocked up on first-rounders and could put together a package that starts with two 2024 first-rounders (Nos. 11 and 23) and a 2025 first-rounder.

"We sit at a very enviable spot at No. 3 where we could take someone at three or, if someone offers a bag — a lot of first-round picks — we would definitely talk about those things," Mayo said during the owners meetings in March.

Some teams close the door on a move down the board when they're in a position to get a franchise QB. That's not what the Patriots are doing.

"We're open to anything — moving up, moving down," Wolf said last week. "We're open for business in the first round, and in every round. We have some holes we feel like we need to fill in the draft. We're drafting to develop the team. The more picks we have the better. But if there's an opportunity to move up and strike, if the board kind of recommends it, then we won't be afraid to pull the trigger on that either."

Wolf said he thought there would be a QB at No. 3 overall that he'd be comfortable picking. What he didn't say was whether there might be a QB the Patriots want as much who will be available in a lower draft slot.

If the Vikings (or Raiders or Broncos) offered "a bag," then maybe the Patriots would move down. Their decision on how far to descend might depend upon how they view quarterbacks like McCarthy, Penix or even Nix. It's about tiering. It's about making sense of value.

How much better is Daniels than Maye is better than McCarthy is better than Penix? And so on.

How can the Patriots ascribe a draft-asset value to the difference in quality in those quarterbacks?

And finally, can the Patriots have a clear enough sense of the landscape to move down and not miss out on the QB they want?

It's a great idea to move down from third overall to 11th if the Patriots know they can get McCarthy in that slot (and they think McCarthy is an equal prospect to Maye). But the Patriots don't and won't know that No. 11 is a safe spot for the QB4. It's a major risk that they might come away from the first round without a QB.

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Can Wolf take that risk?

Kraft, after all, said he would consider starting a GM search after the draft, depending upon how it goes. It might be that simple. Wolf must take a QB at third overall because he can't risk moving down and filling out the roster around Jacoby Brissett, New England's projected QB1 at this moment. It would be a tough situation for Wolf to defend. Yes, he filled his arsenal with draft picks. No, he doesn't have a QB of the future. Texans GM Nick Caserio did something similar in Houston before getting C.J. Stroud last year. But Caserio had job security.

It's unclear if Wolf has that same luxury.

It's most likely that Maye ends up a Patriot. It's smart, however, for the Patriots to explore their options in moving down. Yes, they need a QB. They need to draft one this year. But if they can be greedy and snag some more picks to fill out a roster that lacks talent, then why not listen to interested teams? Maybe New England can find a way to do something special.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.