National Football League

Will Jaguars reach a new deal with QB Trevor Lawrence this offseason?

Published Feb. 21, 2024 11:42 a.m. ET

In many ways, Trevor Lawrence's looming second contract brings uncertainty for both the quarterback and the Jaguars.

The former No. 1 overall pick is eligible for an extension after completing three NFL seasons. From the team's perspective, a market-setting deal could be crippling long-term if Lawrence can't shake the inconsistency and turnover issues that have plagued a significant chunk of his professional career. And from Lawrence's perspective, maybe he would consider passing on the security of a deal this offseason (assuming Jacksonville makes an offer) to bet on himself, with the goal of playing his way into the record contract that felt inevitable coming out of the 2022 season.

Considering the Bengals' Joe Burrow got $55 million per year in his extension last September, the top of the franchise quarterback market should start at or near $60 million in average annual value this offseason. That's a benchmark that feels like a massive stretch for Lawrence.

For a Jaguars team that collapsed down the stretch in 2023, Lawrence's numbers dipped from the previous year in completion rate (down to 65.6% from 66.3%), passing yards (4,016 last season; 4,113 in 2022), passing touchdowns (21 last season; 25 in 2022), interceptions (14 last season; 8 in 2022), passer rating (88.5 last season; 95.2 in 2022) and EPA per dropback (-.09 last season; 0.11 in 2022).

He ranked third-worst in the NFL with 21 giveaways last season. Since entering the league in 2021, Lawrence has 60 turnovers, the most in the NFL during that span.

Since spring 2022, there have been six quarterbacks — ranging from starters to superstars — who received their second contracts: Burrow, the Chargers' Justin Herbert (April 2023), Ravens' Lamar Jackson (May 2023), Eagles' Jalen Hurts (April 2022), Cardinals' Kyler Murray (July 2022) and Giants' Daniel Jones (March 2022).

Of the six, through their first three seasons, Lawrence ranks only above Jones in interceptions, yards per attempt and passer rating. Lawrence's passing yards numbers are better than those of Hurts and Jackson in their first three years, but Lawrence started more games. Hurts started just 34 games in his first three seasons (Carson Wentz was the starter when he arrived in Philadelphia), and Jackson started just 37 (Joe Flacco was the initial starter in Baltimore). Lawrence has started 50 games through three seasons. He also has more touchdown passes than Hurts and Jones, and a better completion rate than Hurts, through their first three seasons (but again, there's the games-played caveat with Hurts).

Of the aforementioned quarterbacks to sign their second contracts in the past two years, Lawrence has only been definitively better than Jones, who could be replaced as the Giants' starter as soon as this season.

If Lawrence and the Jaguars reach agreement on a deal this offseason, a possible slot is $50 million per year — right behind Hurts ($51 million) but above the Broncos' Russell Wilson ($48.5 million).

Jacksonville also has until May 2 to pick up the fifth-year option on Lawrence's rookie contract, which would give him a fully guaranteed salary projected to be $21.978 million for 2025, according to Overthecap.com.

"Obviously, you want to be able to have some security, and you want to make some money," Lawrence told NFL Network during Super Bowl week.

"I know I have a job to do regardless, whether I get the extension this year or next year or whatever it is," he continued. "It's not going to change. I have to prepare myself to be the best player I can be next season and take us as far as we can go."

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At his end-of-season press conference last month, Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke acknowledged that the team hasn't ruled out doing an extension with Lawrence this spring or summer. He called the former Clemson star's 2023 season "another learning year," noting that Lawrence spent a lot of time on the injury report, though he missed only one game.

"You look at this season, the two things we've got to do are we've got to do a better job of keeping [Lawrence] safe and protected, and he's got to do a better job of protecting himself," Baalke said. "When your quarterback has a throwing shoulder injury, a knee injury, an ankle injury and a concussion all in one year, that's alarming. … There's a lot of things that contribute to that, but we do have to do a better job there.

"As far as Trevor and the long-term relationship with this team, there's no doubt in that. We're going to get something done at the appropriate time."

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As for Lawrence, he's not concerning himself with contract negotiations (or so he says). He's leaving that to his agent, James Courie of MGC Sports, and the Jaguars' front office.

"It's not just about me and my situation," Lawrence told NFL Network. "We want to put our team in a good spot to have success moving forward.

"A lot goes into it that I'm not even going to think about," he added. "I have to play football. I've got a job to do. That's not my job [to worry about an extension]."

With that job, however, comes uncertainty as to what a second contract looks like for him.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.