.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
'Bear Bets': Favorite wagers, tips on how to bet 2024 Kentucky Derby
Bear Bets is back!
FOX Sports' digital gambling show returned this week to discuss all the hot-button topics surrounding the Kentucky Derby this weekend.
Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz were joined by FanDuel TV's and NBC Sports' Matt Bernier to discuss how to wager and their favorite bets for all the races this weekend.
Let's get right into the action.
The weather forecasts for Louisville this weekend don't seem to be too great, with some rain likely for Saturday. If it does rain, are there any horses you like on a wetter surface?
The Bear: Mystic Dan
"I played Mystic Dan at 40-to-1 solely because of this saying: If the track comes up wet, Mystic Dan is an absolute must-use horse."
Bernier: Mystic Dan
"I won't take anyone out of consideration. But I will look at a horse like Mystic Dan, who, if it's dry by the time the Derby is run, I don't particularly like his chances. But he's got that one race in the southwest two starts back on that sloppy track or the muddy track down in Oakmont that sticks out like a sore thumb."
Fierceness is the favorite (5-to-2) to win the Kentucky Derby. What are your thoughts on him?
The Bear: "I do think that if, if he gets away, he's gonna win. But he's had a tendency to when he's kind of been looked in the eye or when he hasn't had things his own way, whether it was in the champagne or whether it was in his in the holy bowl, he has a tendency to maybe to throw in the towel."
Bernier: "If anybody wants to sit there and say you can't trust him, how do you bet him at 5-to-2? That's your prerogative. I understand it. I think nine times out of 10, that would be my approach as well. I just look at the rest of this field and I go, ‘They need to improve by, I think, a relatively large margin to be relatively close to even getting into the conversation of beating him.’"
Do you guys have any long shots you like?
Bernier: Catalytic (30-to-1)
"I don't think Catalytic is impossible to run inside the top four. He's extremely lightly raced. His first time going around two turns was in the Florida Derby. He was no match for Fierceness. But he effectively won the race within the race. If you want to sit there and question the field, I can't really argue with you. I don't think there was a heck of a lot in this year's Florida Derby. But we've seen lightly raced horses like this outrun their odds."
The Bear: Just Steel (20-to-1)
"If you look at his numbers and his form, either in the past performances or on the sheets, he's one of the faster horses in the race. I know D. Wayne Lucas has not had a horse hit the board for a heck of a long time in the Kentucky Derby."
Do you account for trainers' and jockeys' histories when betting on the Kentucky Derby?
Bernier: "I think it's immense. I think this is the most important race as far as experience goes. Because it is such an anomaly. This is a race that we don't run anything like in the United States. And really, there are only a few races run like this in the world.
"It's why a trainer like Todd Pletcher makes a lot of sense. Todd's won this race a number of times. John Velazquez has won the race a number of times. Chad Brown; well, he has not won the race yet. I think anyone who pays attention to horse racing understands that for Chad, it's not a matter of if he can't win the Derby, it's a matter of when."
Do you have a winner for the Kentucky Oats?
Bernier: Just FYI
"She's been breathing fire here in the morning. She's kind of the buzz Philly. … Her plan to get to the Kentucky Oaks did not necessarily go according to plan. They wanted to run her down at Gulfstream Park, but she spiked a little minor fever the day of the race. They had to scratch her. … Now, to see the way that she's come out of it, I think she's sitting on until Friday. I think she's got a giant, giant chance to win that race."
What are your favorite bets for the Kentucky Derby?
Schwartz: Sierra Leone +115 to beat Fierceness
"Fierceness doesn't start well. If he doesn't start well, he's done. Leone finishes races well. If he can get out fast, I like his chances."
The Bear: Vahva to win the Derby City Distaff
"She's two-for-two on the Churchill Surface. Her trainer, Shri Devo, is having a great spring so far."
Follow along with FOX Sports for the latest news on the Kentucky Derby and other sports.
