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2023 Women's World Cup odds: Oddsmaker's take on semifinals, futures
Only four teams remain on the Women's World Cup oddsboard as the 32-team tournament heads toward the semifinals. The one certainty: A new champion will lift the Cup this year, as none of the four teams has a past Women’s World Cup title to its credit.
But which two teams will play for the trophy? Will semifinal favorites Spain and England advance to Sunday’s championship match? Will Sweden continue its upstart run? Or will host Australia continue making its home fans delightfully delirious?
WynnBet trader Dominick DeBonis lets us in on what bettors think about Women’s World Cup semifinal odds ahead of the Tuesday and Wednesday matches.
Let's jump into the action.
Working Overtime
Spain meets Sweden in the first semifinal, set for 4 a.m. ET Tuesday on FOX and the FOX Sports app. The Spanish side is coming off a 2-1 overtime victory against the Netherlands. Sweden, which beat Team USA in the round of 16, followed with a 2-1 quarterfinal victory over fellow World Cup upstart Japan.
WynnBet opened the three-way moneyline at Spain +105/Sweden +286/Draw +230. Late Sunday night, just over 24 hours until kickoff, there was no movement on those odds.
"There’s equal ticket count on the two sides of the three-way bets and virtually nothing on Draw," DeBonis said. "It seems like Sweden in extra time would be the ideal house result."
So WynnBet is rooting for Draw in regulation plus injury time, then hoping the Swedes win in overtime. But as DeBonis noted, the large majority of American bettors aren’t enthused about betting for a tie, though there have been several draws in this tourney.
"It’s kind of an anomaly for an international tournament, but I was going through the results, and if you blind bet Draw for one Unit every game, you’re up close to three units," DeBonis said. "This was strongly aided by the 10/1 result on the Jamaica-France Draw. Overall, I would still say it’s not a successful long-term strategy to bet Draw.
"And the American audience, which is not programmed to expect a tie, doesn’t show much interest in them."
Of course, there are several ways to bet on Women’s World Cup odds. If you’d rather not deal with the three-way moneyline, the two-way To Advance market perhaps better suits you. It’s as simple as it sounds: Which team will advance to the championship match, whether in regulation/injury time, overtime or on penalty kicks.
In that market, Spain is -189 and Sweden +146, currently.
Rising Up Down Under
When this tournament opened, Australia was among the top handful of teams in odds to win the Women’s World Cup. The Matildas took the long route through the quarterfinals to beat France. The match was tied 0-0 after 120 minutes of play — regular time plus overtime — and the Aussies then won 7-6 in a penalty-kick shootout.
England found itself in a 1-0 hole against Colombia in the 44th minute of a quarterfinal match. But the English side responded to tie it in first-half injury time en route to a 2-1 victory.
WynnBet’s three-way moneyline opened at England +115/Australia +270/Draw +218. Perhaps not surprisingly, the three-way line has moved a bit in favor of the home underdog, now sitting at England +125/Australia +253/Draw +210.
Still, between three-way moneyline play, Draw No Bet — a market in which bets are on one team or the other to win in regulation plus injury time — and To Advance, this match is very much drawing dollars on both teams.
"It’s good, balanced action by virtue of needing Australia or Draw on the three-way and needing England on the Draw No Bet and To Advance markets," DeBonis said, while noting a little sharp play on the Aussies. "The action on Draw No Bet has come from a couple of players we respect and is a good sharp indicator for the Matildas."
WynnBet’s Draw No Bet market has England -180 and Australia +140.
Root Root Root for the Home Team
Looking at the championship futures market, WynnBet and pretty much every other U.S. sportsbook dodged huge liability — read: the sportsbooks won big — when Team USA unexpectedly bowed out in the round of 16. But oddsmakers still have preferred outcomes among the four remaining sides.
Spain and England are practically co-favorites to lift the Cup, with Spain +175 and England +185 at WynnBet. Australia follows at +420, and Sweden is the +550 fourth choice.
Nothing would please WynnBet more than a host-country championship.
"On the outright market, we’re looking at a small loss to Spain, decent wins to England and Sweden and a scoop-the-pot-type win to Australia," DeBonis said. "We were break-even to Spain coming into the quarters, but their strong performance against the Netherlands and advancing to the semis a day before England brought a wave of action on Spain."
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
