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USWNT-Portugal Women's World Cup betting recap: Draw huge win for sportsbooks
The width of the goal post. That’s all that saved the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup odds board from arguably its most dramatic shakeup in the tournament's history.
And it’s all that saved Team USA from being eliminated by a determined Portugal side, in what arguably would’ve been the biggest upset in Women’s World Cup history.
But the U.S. Women’s National Team held on for a 0-0 draw, advancing to the Knockout Stage, albeit in unimpressive fashion for fans and certainly for bettors.
WynnBet trader Dominick DeBonis, also a soccer aficionado, weighs in on Tuesday's result and how things look going forward in the Women’s World Cup betting market.
The Shot (Almost) Heard ‘Round the World
In the 92nd minute, two minutes into eight minutes of injury time, Portugal’s Ana Capeta split two defenders while getting to a perfect pass and fired a shot that beat USA goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher.
But the ball doinked off the post. And with it, the USWNT’s hopes of winning a third straight Women’s World Cup remained alive.
"The U.S. being eliminated by Portugal, in my opinion, [would’ve been] the biggest upset in the history of the World Cup, men’s or women’s," WynnBet trader Dominick DeBonis said. "Germany going out in the group stage of the 2018 men’s tournament is the closest comparison, but Germany wasn’t the outright favorite pre-tournament."
Indeed, Team USA has been favored all along to win its third straight World Cup. And in this specific Group E finale, the U.S. was a strong -475 favorite on the three-way moneyline, while Portugal was a hefty +1200 underdog.
But it was Draw bettors who got paid out at +525, meaning a $10 wager profited $52.50 for a $62.50 total payout. That said, Draw was not a popular play in this match. Rather, the bulk of tickets and dollars were on Team USA to win, and bettors were also on USA -1.5 goals.
'We're not happy with the performance' - Alex Morgan on USWNT's draw vs. Portugal
Books Notch The Win
So WynnBet and surely countless other sportsbooks were just fine with the result. However, most bettors — particularly the public/recreational players backing the Red, White & Blue — took the loss.
"Draw was the best result on the three-way by far," DeBonis said, before looking ahead to Women’s World Cup championship futures odds. "The U.S. going through means the biggest loss that we and presumably all other domestic sportsbooks have is still on the board. By comparison, Team USA is miles ahead of our second-biggest liability."
Entering the Portugal match, the U.S. was the +255 favorite in odds to win the Women’s World Cup. But the Americans certainly didn’t look like favorites Monday, finishing second in Group E behind a Netherlands team that blew out Vietnam 7-0 in the other group-stage finale.
Team USA went 1-0-2 in group play for five points, while the Netherlands went 2-0-1 for seven points.
Because of that second-place finish, the USWNT likely faces a tougher round of 16 game against a solid Sweden outfit. That’s provided the -192 favorite Swedes beat Argentina on Tuesday, which would give Sweden a perfect 3-0 mark and first place in Group G.
"The gulf in talent between Sweden and the rest of Group G is big," DeBonis said. "Sweden has been knocking on the door of a major trophy for quite a few years now. The U.S. probably opens as the favorite, but the price will be in the +130 to +140 range.
That means a USA-Sweden match is relatively close to a pick ‘em.
"Sweden will probably be around +190 and Draw around +240," DeBonis said. "A pick ‘em on the three-way moneyline would be about +165 on the two sides and +200 on Draw."
Regardless of the opponent, American fans and bettors will get another overnight affair Sunday on FOX and FOX Sports app.
Walking a Thin Line
Although Team USA moves on and continues to be a big betting liability to win the tournament, WynnBet and other American sportsbooks are still happy about that at the moment. Had the U.S. bowed out Monday with a loss, betting interest would’ve dramatically waned the rest of the tournament.
So DeBonis and fellow oddsmakers have plenty of USWNT action to look forward to, at least in the round of 16. But hoping for anything beyond that is a dicey proposition, based on Team USA’s near-loss to Portugal.
"Thus far, this does not look like a championship-level group. Oftentimes in this sport, the better squad on the day can lose the result," DeBonis said, alluding to Portugal, which would’ve advanced had Capeta’s shot found the back of the net. "Portugal was unfortunate not to win, based on the run of play. Carli Lloyd, one of the all-time greats, said on the broadcast that the U.S. is walking a thin line between confidence and arrogance, and I can’t sum it up any better."
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
